Scottish independence: Lower predictions on oil

INCOME predictions for a Scottish share of oil and gas have been reversed downwards in new analysis set out by finance secretary John Swinney.

Predictions have been reversed downwards

The Scottish Government’s figures put the likely total between £2.9 billion and £7.8bn in 2016-17, which would be the first full year of independence according to the SNP’s timetable following a Yes vote in September’s referendum.

The range compares with predictions made in 2013 that North Sea revenue would be between £4.2bn and £10.7bn for the same period.

Mr Swinney said the central prediction shows the country can benefit from £34.3bn over the next five years – equal to almost £7bn a year – as he unveiled the government’s “oil and gas analytical bulletin”.

The Office for Budget Responsibility, set up by the UK government, makes far lower predictions. The body expects just £15.8bn over the five years.

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