Poll: Nigel Farage's Reform predicted to become official Holyrood opposition ahead of Tories and Labour

Russell Findlay has refused to rule out stepping down as Conservative leader, as a damning new poll predicts his party will slump into fourth place behind Reform and Labour.

Mr Findlay also indicated he is “not prepared” to work with Nigel Farage’s party to lock the SNP out of government.

A new poll by Survation predicts the Conservatives will only pick up 11 per cent of the constituency votes and 12 per cent of the regional votes in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. This would see them drop from 31 seats in 2021 to just 13.

Should this play out at the polls, it would see the party drop to fourth place behind the SNP on 58 seats, Reform UK on 21 seats and Scottish Labour on 18.

The poll for consultancy group True North also puts the Scottish Lib Dems on 10 seats, the Scottish Greens on eight, and Alba not winning any.

Mr Findlay made the comments during a speech in Edinburgh to mark one year to go until the Scots go to the polls.

Russell Findlay makes a speech to mark one year to go until the Holyrood election. | Jane Barlow/Press Association.

He was introduced to the stage by his deputy Rachael Hamilton MSP, who littered her speech with references to Greek mythology - but this new poll appears to show Mr Findlay is presiding over his own Greek tragedy.

Mr Findlay said the prospect of another five years of SNP rule “keeps me awake at night” and insisted his party are the ones to stop John Swinney winning next year’s election.

When asked by The Scotsman if he would resign if his party does fall behind Reform UK on polling day, he said: “I’m not going into speculation on what might or might not happen in 2026.

“The only guarantee is our party will not support an SNP government or an SNP First Minister.

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“Beyond that, let’s see what happens with the results.”

During his speech, he encouraged voters to not be wooed by the politics of Mr Farage, insisting that a vote for Reform is a vote for the SNP.

Mr Findlay said: “Our country will again be defined by nationalism, the base politics of populism.

“That’s why every day my party stands up to the SP as we have for 18 years.

Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay | Jane Barlow/Press Association

“Not everyone understands this and is as worried as I am about an SNP win - Farage is not worried. He said so himself.

“Farage would rather put the SNP into power at Holyrood than a pro-UK party, he will gladly gift the SNP another five years in power.”

He added: “John Swinney isn’t scared of Farage, he is thrilled by him.

“He doesn’t want to confront Reform, he wants to help them.

“It’s actually John Swinney’s dirty little secret - in public he pretends to despise them, but in private he adores them.”

He also said he can “guarantee” the Scottish Conservatives will “never back” an SNP government or vote in a way that allows Mr Swinney to continue on as First Minister.

Nationalists still expected to all short of a majority

Although the SNP is expected to remain the largest party in Holyrood in 2026, it is predicted the nationalists will fall short of a majority.

It has since been speculated the pro-unionists parties could club together to lock the SNP out of government, and place Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar as First Minister instead.

However, Mr Findlay has now ruled out working with Reform UK in a vote to block an SNP minority from power, saying he is “not prepared” to work with a party that supports an SNP government in Holyrood.

This comes after Mr Farage said he would not back Mr Sarwar to be First Minister.

Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said the Survation poll shows Reform UK is “now a serious competitor” for becoming the official opposition party in Scotland.

He said: “After its success in last week’s English local elections, Reform now pose a significant threat to the Conservatives’ and Labour’s prospects at Holyrood too.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. Picture: John Devlin | John Devlin/National World.

“More than one in four of those who voted Conservative in last year’s Westminster election and nearly one in five of those who backed Labour have now switched to Reform.

“As a result, Reform’s poll rating in Scotland has risen to 20 per cent for the first time and the party is now a serious competitor for the position of principal opposition party at Holyrood.

“The fracturing of the unionist vote is good news for John Swinney. Even though the party’s share of the vote is now well down on May 2021, it could still win the bulk of Holyrood’s first-past-the-post seats, and as a result, be left with only a little short of its current tally of MSPs at Holyrood.

“Crucially, the fragmentation of Scotland’s politics could help ease the path towards another pro-independence majority at Holyrood at a time when, still, almost half of Scotland would like to leave the UK.”

Mr Findlay dismissed the projections and said: “The 2026 election result is not set in stone.

“My party is used to being written off by pollsters and pundits - and then proving them wrong.”

The SNP says it is now ready to take the election fight straight to Reform on the back of the polling.

John Swinney unveils the SNP candidates for the 2026 election. | Jane Barlow/Press Association

George Adam MSP said: “While we take no vote for granted, and with a year of campaigning to go, this poll shows the SNP remains the most popular party in Scotland - as the party that delivers on the priorities of the people of Scotland.

“Labour’s shameful decision to cosy up to the policies of Nigel Farage’s Reform shows exactly why Anas Sarwar’s party has fallen to third place, coupled with their shameful removal of the winter fuel payment, betrayal of Waspi women and horrific cuts to vital support for disabled people.

“You don’t beat populists by imitating them - as this poll clearly shows. You beat them by confronting them.

“While Labour have opened the door to Nigel Farage, only the SNP will confront and defeat Farage and his damaging politics.”