Poll: Majority of Scots would still vote No in indyRef2

Voters say they would still vote no to Scottish independence, according to a new poll.
Voters say they would still vote no to Scottish independence, according to a new poll.
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Voters in Scotland would oppose independence in a second referendum, according to a new poll.

The latest Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times Scotland found the figures unchanged from their previous survey six months ago.

The poll found that 57% of voters would be likely to cast a No vote, compared to 43% for Yes.

Researchers questioned 1,037 people in Scotland and found support for the SNP has fallen among voters, at both Holyrood and Westminster.

Asked about their Westminster voting intentions, 36% said they would vote SNP, down 5% from the previous poll in September 2017.

Poll: Most Scots don’t want indyref2 in next three years

The Conservatives took second place on 28% (+1%), with Labour on 27% (+3%) and the Liberal Democrats and Greens unchanged on 6% and 2% respectively.

The survey predicts the SNP would remain the biggest party at Holyrood in the next election, with 40% of respondents planning to vote for the party, a 2% drop from the previous poll.

The Tories, Labour and Lib Dems remain unchanged on 28%, 22% and 6% while support for the Greens rose 1%, to 3%.

Regarding the timing of any further Scottish independence referendum, 58% do not want one in the next few years, 17% want one during Brexit negotiations and 25% when these are finished.

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The number of people who expect Scotland to become independent in the next five to 10 years has dropped slightly, down 2% to 27%.

The number who do not expect independence at any point in the next few decades has also dropped 2% to 30%.

A total of 19% (-1%) envisage it happening in 10 or 15 years, while 11% (+1%) expect it to take 20 or 30 years.

Election expert professor Sir John Curtice told the newspaper: “Support remains high enough for the independence flame still to be burning, but not strongly enough for the SNP to contemplate another ballot any time soon.”

He added: “Labour will be cheered by the three point increase in Westminster support since your last poll, but the 27% share is little different from other recent polls, and is simply in line with its 2017 vote. There is no sign of any [Richard] Leonard bounce.”

He said if Nicola Sturgeon “looks to be cornered by the independence debate, Ruth Davidson is in an equally difficult position over Brexit.”