Martyn McLaughlin: Sturgeon's stateside trip promises to be curiously low-key

Nicola Sturgeon speaking in New York during her 2015 visit to the States this time round, there might be fewer politicians and more businesses on the agenda.

The frenetic debate surrounding the triggering of Article 50 and a second independence referendum has meant that First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s planned visit to the US next month has received scant coverage, but it promises to be an intriguing diversion from the political circus at home.

The itinerary for next month’s trip has been kept deliberately vague, but behind the scenes, efforts will be well under way to maximise every last minute of Ms Sturgeon’s time stateside. When the Scottish Government announced her last trip to the US back in 2015, the fledgling diary of engagements focused on meetings with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The resultant headlines, however, focused on a late addition to the itinerary – an appearance on The Daily Show, a popular late night talk show, where Ms Sturgeon impressed viewers with a quick-fire exchange of wits with the programme’s host, Jon Stewart.

Anyone expecting a repeat performance is likely to be disappointed. The Daily Show booking was a calculated gamble, during which Ms Sturgeon poked fun at the foreign policy of past US administrations. Riding high on the back of the SNP’s showing at the general election, she was on safe ground and her tone was well judged. The gamble paid off.

Given recent events in the US, however, it would be remarkable if the First Minister and her advisers are contemplating a repeat performance. The focus of US satire in 2017 is firmly trained on the White House, and even in the US, it is no secret that President Donald Trump has has encountered hostility in his mother’s homeland. Entire skits have been devoted to the groundswell of opposition to the activities of Trump International Golf Links in Balmedie.

Ms Sturgeon has played her own small part in the show of defiance to Mr Trump. Two years ago, she stripped him of his role as a GlobalScot ambassador following his suggestion of a blanket ban on Muslims entering the US. For all the international realpolitik of the cordial letter she sent Mr Trump last November, Ms Sturgeon’s contempt for the president is clear. Privately, she is not the only leader to hold such views, but she knows it would be politically damaging to even hint at them in a public forum.

Indeed, the ongoing tensions between the Scottish Government and Mr Trump means it is unlikely Ms Sturgeon will seek out the same high-level political audiences she enjoyed in 2015, when she met Tony Blinken, the US deputy secretary of state, and John King Jr, the deputy education secretary.

In terms of hard statecraft, this promises to be the lowest-key visit by any First Minister. Gone are the days when Alex Salmond met Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, to discuss green energy, or when Henry McLeish, seeking respite from his domestic woes, somehow conjured up a 25 minute-long sit down with President George W Bush, a gathering which remains just as unfathomable 16 years on.

As well as personal discord, the policy agendas of the respective administrations are like chalk and cheese. It is only four months since the Scottish Government published its official “US engagement strategy”, but now that Mr Trump is in office, elements of the seven-page document feel hopelessly out of date. Take the pledge that “we will work with partners across the US to provide leadership on issues such as the low carbon economy”. It seems optimistic to suppose that the Trump White House, an administration that is doing everything possible to appease the fossil fuel industry, will suddenly follow Scotland’s lead.

Instead, it looks like Ms Sturgeon’s trip will be focused on drumming up business. As the government is keen to remind us, the US is Scotland’s largest overseas market for exports, worth an estimated £4 billion in 2014, as well as the largest source of foreign direct investment.

Little wonder then that Ms Sturgeon has said “technology and tourism” will be at the forefront of her thoughts; expect her travelling party to include the chief excecutive of an enterprising young start up, as well as the usual delegates from Scottish Enterprise, VisitScotland, and Scottish Development International. The primary aim, as always, will be to attract investment to Scotland, although it remains questionable just how effective a first ministerial visit is in achieving this goal.

During her 2015 US trip, Ms Sturgeon announced plans by the electronics manufacturer, Jabil, to create 212 jobs at its plant in Livingston.

The investment, she said, was testament to the country’s “enviable global reputation for engineering excellence” which made it an “attractive location for US businesses”.

Two years on, however, and Jabil’s affections for Scotland have cooled. It announced last week that it plans to close down its manufacturing operations in the West Lothian town, with the loss of about 260 jobs.

Ms Sturgeon, of course, cannot be blamed for market conditions, but it seems reasonable to ask if the Scottish Government is doing all it can to woo potential investors. It has been four months since Scotland’s de facto ambassador in Washington, Donnie Jack – formally known by the somewhat pompous title, counsellor for the Americas – left his post, and a successor has yet to appointed.

It will, then, be interesting to see how Ms Sturgeon pitches next month’s trip. But you can be certain of one thing – at some point, she and Alan Cumming will pose for a selfie.