Leader Comment: Indyref2 would be risky leap in dark

Alex Salmond would be well-advised to await outcome of Brexit negotiations before ramping up pressure for another vote

Less than four years ago Scots voted to remain part of the United Kingdom. Picture: TSPL

Devotees of three-dimensional chess may look forward with enthusiasm to the prospect of a second Scottish independence referendum battle overlaid by a complex separate Scottish relationship with the EU. Not only has former First Minister Alex Salmond hailed recent polls showing a rise in support for independence but he has also laid out the key battleground: “Scotland’s trade and access to markets”.

Mr Salmond is, of course, right to stress the importance of Scotland’s trading relationships. But it is not just Scotland’s trade with the rest of the EU that needs to be considered. In 2015 some 63 per cent of Scotland’s exports went to the rest of the UK, compared with just 16 per cent to the EU. Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK increased by 74.1 per cent between 2002 and 2015, whereas exports to the EU increased by only 7.9 per cent. It is the totality of our trading relations that crucially matter. Scottish business would be most apprehensive about the prospect of an economic hard border between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

Alex Salmond believes EU trade will be a key issue during a second independence campaign. Picture: John Devlin

Moreover, the European Commission itself has warned that the EU share of world trade is set to decline over the next ten to 15 years: some 90 per cent of world demand will be generated outside of Europe. And Scotland, as Mr Salmond well knows, has long prided itself on its global trading history.

Nor could the currency question be as lightly dismissed as Mr Salmond contends. The independent Scotland he envisages is one that may (or may not) be inside the EU but could be a member of the European Economic Area. At present it is a mountain of supposition and conjecture.

Less than four years ago, the people of Scotland voted 55.3 per cent in favour of remaining in the UK. But a Scotland independent of the UK and also with a set of separate relationships outside of the EU but (prospectively) within the EEA will be a formidable challenge to sell to voters – bearing in mind that nothing would be settled, no details available, and that a referendum vote would be held before the outcome of the UK’s complex Brexit negotiations is known.

Moreover, there is no evident rise in public support for a Scottish referendum so soon after the 2014 vote which they were promised would settle the issue for a generation.

Alex Salmond believes EU trade will be a key issue during a second independence campaign. Picture: John Devlin

The reason for the seeming scramble to get the second independence bandwagon underway is that the SNP would want to see an independent Scotland seeking to establish its EU credentials before the UK Brexit takes effect in 2019.

Even if this is at all practicable, Scots voters may prefer to consider the merits of a second referendum and the prospectus being laid before them once the outcome of the UK’s Brexit negotiations are known. Voters would then be in a better position to pass judgment on what the implications would be for Scotland.

What Mr Salmond is pushing for is a leap in the dark and one in which an informed choice would be impossible.