Indyref2: First poll in five years shows majority of Scots want independence

A small majority of Scots now back independence in the first lead for the "Yes" campaign in in five years, a new poll has shown.

The YouGov survey shows that the “Yes” vote leads “No” by 51% to 49%.

About one on five Scots who voted No in 2014. but back EU membership, shave shifted to independence, according to the poll.

But 56% of Scots don't believe there should not be a referendum this in year in line with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon's preferred timescale.

The latest poll will fire up demands for indyref2

The poll has emerged the day after the Scottish Parliament voted in favour of holding a second referendum on independence, with the SNP Government seeking to stage it this year. This has been rejected by the UK Government which control over the constitution.

Those who didn’t vote in the independence vote in 2014 or the 2016 EU referendum, including those who were too young to vote, currently break for “Yes” by 51% to 25%.

Chris Curtis, Political Research Manager at YouGov, said: “These are concerning times for unionists both north and south of the border with “Yes” gaining considerable ground on “No” since 2014. But ultimately, whether a referendum happens won’t be decided by polling, but the political manoeuvres of the Scottish and British governments.

“If there is a referendum, Scottish opposition to Brexit does give nationalists an opportunity to win more voters over to their cause. Yet the fundamental problem that flummoxed the “Yes” movement in 2014, that independence would damage the economy, still exists and could still set them back in indyref2.”

The SNP still have their work cut out to persuade Scots of the economic case for independence with 42% believing the country would be worse off economically outside the UK, while 35% think better off.

But Ms Sturgeon is still the most trusted politician on Scotland’s future, while none of the leaders of pro-union parties poll well on trust.

A spokesman for the First Minister said the prospect of Brexit happening is shifting attitudes.

"We've known ever since the Brexit vote that a lot of people who voted No in 2014 have been changing their minds, or considering changing their minds at least, about independence," he said.

"I think that the looming reality of Brexit tomorrow night will be crystallising the thought in people's heads that Scotland should be an independent country."

He added that support for independence has "solidified" in the four years since the Brexit vote, according to consistent polling

Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie said it is no coincidence that the poll findings have emerged on the eve of Brexit.

"People in Scotland can see there is a route back to the European table through independence, and they can see that Green politicians and others across the continent would welcome an independent Scotland taking its place among other smaller progressive countries," he said.