Independence support rises to a six-year high

SUPPORT for Scottish independence has risen to its highest level for six years, with almost a third of Scots now backing separation from the rest of the UK, according to a new survey.

The results of the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey (SSA), presented today, show 32 per cent are now in favour of independence, up from 23 per cent last year to a level of support not seen since 2005.

The poll also found support for all decisions being made in Scotland has leaped 15 points to 43 per cent, while 29 per cent backed control over everything apart from defence and foreign affairs being passed to Scotland – the option often referred to as “devolution max”.

Meanwhile, the survey found the price of independence is just £500 – with 65 per cent in favour if everyone was a few hundred pounds better off as a result.

The results of the survey appear to be a major show of confidence in the SNP since the party was returned to power with an historic majority this year.

While the survey shows more Scots still oppose independence than support it, it also provided a blow to the unionist parties by suggesting that the Calman reforms for more devolution, including boosting income tax powers, currently in the Scotland Bill, are not enough for most Scots.

However, it was not all good news for the SNP, with almost half – 46 per cent – of respondents saying they were worried about independence and only 31 per cent feeling confident about it.

There were also grave concerns expressed about the impact on the economy of an independent Scotland, with only 34 per cent believing its economy would be better under independence.

Concern about a weakened economy comes as doubts have emerged over the impact of the referendum on Scotland.

Earlier this year, Citigroup warned investors to avoid backing Scottish renewables because of the climate of uncertanty created by the independence referendum.

Meanwhile, concerns were also raised in a recent independent report produced for the Commons Library on whether Scotland could join the European Union, and what would be the cost if it was allowed in, with the country potentially losing billions of pounds to Brussels in extra payments.

However, the SNP yesterday hailed the survey as showing that momentum is gathering behind their campaign, which was formerly launched at the party conference this autumn.

The SNP claimed a “surge in support for independence” as 65 per cent of people said they would support independence on the basis that they would be better off.

The party highlighted that support for independence is now 9 per cent higher than it was last year.

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: “This is a fantastic survey, and a big boost for Scotland and independence. It was conducted following the SNP’s historic majority victory in May and demonstrates conclusively that the people of Scotland want to continue the positive, optimistic journey our nation is on.

“Now we know that two-thirds of Scots are prepared to back independence on a positive basis. Since the reality is that Scotland puts far more into the London exchequer than we get back in return, the Yes campaign can and will win the economic case for independence.”

Addressing the economic concerns, she said Scotland would be ranked sixth in the world league table of OECD nations in terms of GDP per head – ten places ahead of the UK.

She also referred to the Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland report (GERS), saying: “As the latest GERS report shows, Scotland pays 9.4 per cent of UK tax with 8.4 per cent of the UK’s population – that equals £1,000 extra for every man, woman and child in Scotland, or double the figure in this survey.”

And she challenged the unionist parties to improve the offer of devolving more powers in the Scotland Bill, which is currently in the House of Lords. The SNP wants corporation tax, broadcasting and alcohol duty powers to be devolved as well.

She said: “It should now be abundantly clear to even the most dyed-in-the-wool unionist – even to Michael Moore and Danny Alexander – that the people of Scotland are light years ahead of the inadequate provisions of the Scotland Bill. Scotland has moved on, and the Westminster parties need to catch up.”

Labour last night claimed the survey only served to show that a majority of Scots do not want to see the break-up of the UK.

Margaret Curran, shadow scottish secretary, said: “Far from being the breakthrough the SNP wanted, this shows the vast majority of Scots support devolution and want to see it stronger and better.

“The SNP have been in power for almost five years now, and each year support for separation is actually lower than when Labour formed the Scottish Government.”

She added: “Polls like this explain why Alex Salmond won’t name the day [for the independence referendum]. There is nothing in the SNP manifesto that stops them calling a referendum now, and the only reason for delay is because they fear the verdict of the Scottish people.

“The referendum isn’t a test about how much you love our country – every Scot does – but is about what is best for Scotland.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie, MSP, said: “This survey confirms that independence is a real possibility now, and it is essential we start to get some straight answers and a real debate about the costs of independence.

“Rather than the usual abuse projected towards those who dare to ask for even the smallest detail, the SNP need to enter into a sensible debate about our future.

“Assertions that everything will be fine just will not cut it with the Scottish people, who want to know what the SNP plans are.”

Professor John Curtice, research consultant for independent research body ScotCen, said: “The appetite for a more powerful parliament, including independence, has grown in the last 12 months. However, support for independence is still no higher than it has been on previous occasions since the advent of devolution.

“If the SNP are to persuade a majority of Scots to back independence they will need to convince them of the economic case for leaving the Union – that debate is still to be won or lost.”

There are still doubts over when the Scottish independence referendum will be held, but the survey appears to have knocked efforts by the UK government to take control of it from the SNP.

There had been some in the pro-UK parties who support an early referendum to try to thwart the SNP and not allow Mr Salmond or the Scottish Parliament to set the question.

However, sources in Labour and the coalition yesterday suggested that the results of the survey had “strengthened the hand” of those who would rather sit back and wait for the SNP to hold the referendum.

It is thought that Mr Salmond prefers a 2014 or 2015 poll, although there are worries about what impact this will have on the Scottish economy with a climate of uncertainty.