Households face 4% rise in prices after Brexit vote

Households will suffer following the Brexit vote as inflation is set to surge close to four per cent, according to an influential think tank.

The inflation rate is set to rise to nearly 4% following the vote to leave the EU

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) upgraded its forecasts for growth this year and next - to two per cent in 2016, slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017.

NIESR said it believed the Bank of England would now hold interest rates at 0.25 per cent until the second half of 2019.

Its gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts compare with a far more gloomy report in August, when it warned the UK faced a 50/50 chance of a technical recession as it pencilled in growth of just 1.7 per cent this year and one per cent in 2017.

But NIESR said the outlook remained “one of a slowing economy, confronted with significant risks”.

It said the move to trigger Article 50 could hit growth further in 2017 and predicted the plunging pound would send inflation shooting up to about four per cent in late 2017, which would affect consumer spending power.

But it said this was likely to be “only a temporary phenomenon”, with inflation set to return to the Bank’s two per cent target in 2020.

Simon Kirby, head of macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at NIESR, said: “The positive out-turns for GDP growth in the near term are very welcome but these give little to no guidance as to what will be the long-run impact from leaving the EU.

“The depreciation of sterling has been the most striking feature of the post-referendum economic landscape. This will pass through into consumer prices over the coming months and quarters.”