Poll: Theresa May set for win, SNP to lose dozen seats

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The Conservatives have taken a seven point lead over Labour, the final poll of the general election campaign has revealed.

That would translate to a majority of approximately 50 seats if Theresa May returns to Downing Street, an increase of 17.

Voters will go to the ballot box today. Picture: TSPL

Voters will go to the ballot box today. Picture: TSPL

A YouGov poll for the Times found support for Labour had dipped on the eve of the election. It placed the Tories on 42 per cent, unchanged since Friday, Labour on 35 per cent, down three points, Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent, up one, and UKIP on 5 per cent, up one.

The final Scottish opinion poll of the campaign put First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on course to lose a dozen seats.

A Panelbase survey has the SNP at 41 per cent, a fall of one point over the last week. This would give the party 44 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats, down 12 from their 2015 total of 56 MPs.

READ MORE: Scottish voters go to polls as multiple seats up for grabs

The polling picture

Opinion polls continue to paint a mixed picture as the General Election campaign draws to its conclusion - with Theresa May’s lead ranging from within a single point to a double-digit cushion depending on the polling company.

A Survation poll had the two parties almost neck and neck as voters prepared to cast their ballots while ICM gave the Tories a comfortable 12-point lead.

Survation’s final pre-election survey put the Tories on 41.3 per cent with Labour on per cent the Liberal Democrats on 7.8 per cent SNP on 3.6 per cent, Ukip on 2.4 per cent and the Greens on 2.3 per cent.

ICM’s preliminary findings in a poll for the Guardian put Mrs May’s party on 46 per cent, up one point compared to a poll on Monday, with Labour unchanged on 34 per cent.

The Lib Dems were down one point on 7 per cent, the SNP up one on 5 per cent, Ukip unchanged on 5 per cent and the Greens down one on 2 per cent.

READ MORE: Leader comment: After the confusion, a clear choice emerges

A ComRes poll for The Independent gave the Tories a 10-point lead over Labour.

The poll had the Tories down three points on 44 per cent per cent Labour down one point on 34 per cent, the Lib Dems up one on 9 per cent, Ukip up one on 5 per cent, the SNP on 4 per cent and the Greens on 2 per cent.

Half of 2015 Ukip voters say they will now vote Conservative, potentially adding two million votes, or around 6 per cent points to the Tory vote share.

The Liberal Democrats are losing voters to both major parties, with two-fifths of their 2015 voters saying they will now either vote Labour (22 per cent) or Conservative (19 per cent).

But with Kantar Public the Tory lead was just five points, with the Conservatives on 43 per cent, Labour on 38 per cent, the Lib Dems on 7 per cent and Ukip and the SNP both on 4 per cent.

As mentioned earlier, the YouGov poll for The Times - the final poll of the campaign - put the Tory lead on seven points.

Poll of polls

On Wednesday, the Press Association’s poll of polls, taking in 10 results from the past week, put the Conservatives on 44 per cent, seven points clear of Labour on 37 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent, Ukip on 4 per cent and the Greens on 2 per cent.

Sample sizes

- Survation interviewed 2,798 adults by telephone between June 6 and 7.

- ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 1,532 adults between June 6 and 7.

- ComRes interviewed 2,051 GB adults online between June 5 and 7.

- Kantar interviewed 2,159 GB adults online between June 1 and 7.