Brexit: '˜no deal would cut Scottish GDP growth by 9%'

A '˜no deal' Brexit would cut growth in Scottish economic output by 9%, according to leaked UK Government analysis.

The predicted hit to Scotland if the UK leaves the EU without a deal has been detailed in regional breakdowns that emerged on Wednesday.

The figure is worse than the 8.5 per cent cut to GDP growth predicted by a Scottish Government study last month.

At the time, the Scottish Government figure was described as “completely over-the-top scaremongering” by the Scottish Conservatives.

According to the leaked analysis, every part of the UK is likely to experience lower growth under all three Brexit scenarios.

The figures for Scotland are:

- Single market membership - GDP growth 2.5 per cent lower than projected

Scottish economic growth is likely to be reduced significantly by Brexit, according to leaked UK Government analysis. Picture:TSPL

- Free trade deal - 6 per cent lower

- No deal - 9 per cent lower

The UK as a whole is predicted to have 8 per cent lower GDP with no deal, 5 per cent lower if the UK negotiated a free trade deal, and 2 per cent lower if it remains aligned with the rules of the EU single market.

Scottish economic growth is likely to be reduced significantly by Brexit, according to leaked UK Government analysis. Picture:TSPL

The Scottish Government has reacted with anger.

Mike Russell, Scotland’s Brexit minister, tweeted: “As is becoming increasingly clear, @GOVUK Ministers poured scorn on @ScotGov analysis whilst knowing that theirs was the same. Hypocritical is the kindest word - there are harsher and more accurate ones.”