Election explained: What will change in the SNP's next case for independence?

What would the new case for Scottish independence look like if an IndyRef2 was approved, asks Gina Davidson

There's no getting away from the fact that this general election is all about the constitution, be it Brexit or a second Scottish independence referendum.

Much to the chagrin of some, Labour candidates in particular, it is incredibly difficult to discuss more domestic matters, with the the two issues looming over every political discussion.

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The SNP has put a second referendum front and centre of its campaign - there's been no more pleas for folk to just "lend" them their support without it having to equal a full on pledge for independence, the party has been honest that a vote for them is precisely a vote for another referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon addresses a pro-independence rally in Glasgow's George Square last month. Picture: John DevlinNicola Sturgeon addresses a pro-independence rally in Glasgow's George Square last month. Picture: John Devlin
Nicola Sturgeon addresses a pro-independence rally in Glasgow's George Square last month. Picture: John Devlin

It's also made it crystal clear to the Conservative and Labour parties that no matter who takes up residence in 10 Downing Street after December 12, the SNP will come knocking with a request for a Section 30 order to hold another indy vote.

Putting all the hypotheticals to one side, what would be different this time round from 2014? What would the new case for independence look like if the green light is given?

A new White Paper?

Given the pace at which the SNP would like to hold another referendum - next year, possibly in the first six months - the likelihood of another tome of a White Paper being published is somewhat diminished. Unless much of it is copy and paste.

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Which is where the urgency might backfire somewhat. The 2014 referendum was held up as the gold standard in all that was done. Without a fully imagined, fully costed blueprint for an independent Scotland then comparisons - and not happy ones for the SNP - may well be drawn. Especially as much has been made that people who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum "didn't know what they were voting for", because there was no such similar publication produced.

The Referendums Bill currently going through Holyrood certainly will ensure the legislative framework for holding a new vote will be done and dusted quickly. But the public will no doubt want to see the prospectus on which they're being asked to vote.

Currency

The economics of independence were seen as a weak spot five years ago. This time round the SNP has its Growth Commission report - not so much unicorns and sparkles, more tightening of belts. When it was produced it did not go down well with the left-wing of the independence movement as it dourly predicted more austerity for Scotland.

So this time, there will likely be a far more tentative/realist approach - depending where you sit - as to just what might be achieved economically in the first years of an independent Scotland. Currency will be the big issue as before, though this time it seems the SNP has decided just to brazen it out with keeping the British Pound until the time is right to launch a new Scottish currency, which is "as soon as is practicable" or if six economic tests it has laid out are met.

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The SNP's official policy then will be in a second indy vote, to replace sterling with a new Scottish currency after independence.

Foreign Affairs

The SNP is keen for immigration to continue, especially from the EU, in the light of a falling population. But an independent Scotland will be outside the EU knocking at the door to get back in. There is still much doubt over just how long that process might take, and in the meantime, there will be issues about having a different immigration policy from that of England and how that situation is managed.

Similarly there will need to be clearer answers around borders, and economic tariffs than currently appear to exist. So we can expect a second independence vote to be full of debate on this particular subject and no doubt will hear many of the Brexiteers arguments used against the SNP by other parties.

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