Exclusive:Defence Scotland: SNP told to urgently rethink 'mad' strategy as internal fears grow

The SNP is grappling internally with how to tackle the UK-wide push for defence investment, writes David Bol.

As governments across the globe grapple with the most dangerous international landscape in a generation, John Swinney is under pressure to allow the SNP to have its first proper debate on where it stands on defence in more than a decade.

The alternative risk is of his party “falling behind” and Scotland potentially missing out on crucial investment.

The defence, aerospace and security industry is estimated to be worth around £3.2 billion to Scotland. The Ministry of Defence spends more than £2bn each year with Scottish industry.

The forward section of Type 26 Frigate HMS Cardiff is rolled out from the SBOH at BAE Systems Shipyard in Govan, Scotland. Picture: John Linton/BAE Systems/Royal Navy | John Linton

Despite conflict still raging on the European continent and the situation in the Middle East still resulting in lives, including children, being lost every day, the SNP has not had a proper debate about where it stands on defence policy since 2012. Instead a position to block investments perceived to be linked to munitions and an unassailable opposition to the Trident nuclear weapons system, located on the Clyde, are the SNP’s flagship defence policies.

UK to boost defence spending

With Sir Keir Starmer’s UK government committing to spend 5 per cent of its GDP on defence by 2035, the SNP has come under intense pressure to shift its long-held opposition to spending public funds on the “manufacture of weapons or munitions”, with a perception Scottish ministers are turning their back on the wider defence industry.

READ MORE: Why Keir Starmer will pledge 5% defence spending as Israel and Iran agree to Donald Trump ceasefire

It is understood Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, who also holds the economy brief, is keen for a rethink on her government’s and her party’s position.

The Prime Minister visited the BAE shipyard in Govan earlier this month to announce his strategic defence review, with an ambition to “build a fighting force that is more integrated, more ready, more lethal than ever” and “innovate and accelerate innovation to a wartime pace”.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaks during a visit to BAE Systems in Govan, Glasgow, to launch the strategic defence review. Picture: Andy Buchanan/PA Wire

Sir Keir also stressed he was “using this moment to drive jobs and investment”, including six new munitions factories and 1,000 new jobs.

The Faslane submarine facility on the Clyde will receive £250m of investment as part of a UK government boost announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s spending review.

Row over welding investment

Last month, it emerged the economic development agency, Scottish Enterprise, refused to support plans for a new specialist welding centre over fears it could be used to support the building of Royal Navy submarines.

Ferguson Marine, which SNP ministers nationalised in 2019, has taken on contracts to construct Royal Navy vessels.

READ MORE: UK Defence Secretary accuses SNP of 'student union politics' over defence funding

The Scottish National Investment Bank, set up by SNP ministers in 2020, “does not invest in organisations that are primarily engaged in the manufacture of munitions or weapons”.

Former SNP MP Stewart McDonald, who spent almost five years as the party’s defence spokesperson at Westminster from 2017 to 2022, has warned “the party needs to have a defence debate again”.

Speaking to The Scotsman, he said: “It hasn’t had a proper defence debate since 2012 when we changed the policy on Nato.

“All of this is moving at such pace. The entire international picture is moving at such a rapid pace and if we are a party that seeks to be an independent state - and an independent state in Nato and the EU - then we should have stuff to say on this.”

Former SNP defence spokesperson Stewart McDonald

Mr McDonald warned “there is a risk the party falls behind in that debate”.

He said: “That’s a debate that is going on in capitals all across Europe. And although Edinburgh is not a state capital, the Scottish Government has a role to play as a domestic partner.

SNP’s ‘awkward’ defence stance

“We have an industry in Scotland worth many billions of pounds, employs somewhere between 33,000 and 35,000 people and it has a very awkward relationship with the Scottish Government - it has done so for a very long time.”

Mr McDonald has suggested Mr Swinney should gather the major and smaller defence employers in Scotland, “get the defence procurement minister up from London and say ‘how do I marshal the resources of the government, spending, policy, legislative, to better support this industry?’.”

READ MORE: BAE Systems funding provides 300 jobs boost for Scottish shipyards

The former SNP MP added: “At a time of heightened international conflict, Scotland’s defence industry has a part to play.

“I understand there’s a bit of political balancing to be done here, but I think that can be over-thought and over-egged. We do live in much more dangerous times and there’s a risk we are just saying the same stuff we’ve been saying for a long time - and that just would not be credible to stand still politically as the entire world changes around you.”

Mr McDonald branded the Scottish Enterprise ban on investments relating to munitions “a stupid policy” and hit out at the restrictions in place for the Scottish National Investment Bank.

He said: “Defence is the one industry that has enormous growth happening in it right now and that’s not likely to end time soon. So why should our National Investment Bank not invest in it?

“It’s entirely normal in every other country in Europe or the world for your national institutions to support your national interests, including your national security interests. So why is the Scottish National Investment Bank not doing that? I think that’s mad.”

Vanguard-class submarine HMS Vigilant, one of the UK's four nuclear warhead-carrying submarines, at HM Naval Base Clyde at Faslane | PA

Asked whether the SNP needs to revisit whether it opposes Trident, Mr McDonald warned opening up that debate “would just be self-indulgent” and “would just say the same thing it’s always said”.

He said: “I think it could better focus its attention on other parts of the defence discussion. The reality is it can’t move Trident off the Clyde.

“There are areas they can focus on and have genuine positive consequences - working with industry around development of skills. The defence industry really felt that after Brexit.”

READ MORE: SNP failures on defence could put Scotland at risk from Russia, Labour MP says

Labour Glasgow MSP Paul Sweeney, who before entering politics was an arm reservist and Clyde shipbuilder, has branded the SNP’s position "really frustrating”.

Mr Sweeney first came up against a brick wall trying to encourage Rolls Royce to use Scotland to manufacture small modular nuclear reactors. There was opposition to such a move, even if the reactors weren’t being used in Scotland where there is a de-facto ban on nuclear power stations being built due to the SNP’s hostility to the technology.

‘Bizarre’ SNP position

Mr Sweeney acknowledged the Scottish Government had previously supported defence industries in Scotland. But he has been left aghast at the decision to block investment in the welding facility.

He said: “I found the decision of Scottish Enterprise to indicate to Rolls Royce that they would not be able to support grant funding for the naval welding facility extremely bizarre.

Labour MSP Paul Sweeney | Supplied

“It’s clearly on the back of pressure over comments made by the former first minister Humza Yousaf. There was a recent debate at the Scottish Parliament by the Greens on this stuff.”

Mr Sweeney added: “It’s a misnomer to conflate foreign policy issues with domestic security and defence requirements.

“There is a logical absurdity of suggesting that this is about defence exports to unsavoury regimes, when it’s primarily about our domestic national security and defence in the context of a pretty fraught geopolitical situation.

“I find the context of this somewhat delusional and frustrating. I think it’s fair to say there’s certainly a split within the SNP about this.”

The MSP insisted that BAE Systems on the Clyde, where he previously worked, “has no involvement with any regime suspected of human rights abuses”, adding “there’s no association with the Israel-Palestine issue”.

Protesters form a blockade outside BAE Systems in Govan Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

Mr Sweeney said: “They do not issue vessels for export to those territories - they never have. There is no obvious connection.

“It’s also deeply reckless rhetoric in the context of the need to expand the Royal Navy and expand our domestic shipbuilding programme.”

The Glasgow MSP warned the Scottish Government’s opposition “creates a problem for investment in Scotland that doesn't exist anywhere else in the UK”.

He said: “There’s a nervousness about Scotland - there’s a more volatile risk of being caught on the horns of a political argument.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP Jamie Greene has penned a letter to the Deputy First Minister, Ms Forbes, insisting “the Scottish Government must also play its part in realising that economic potential” of the defence sector.

Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes | PA

He added: “That means creating the right environment for jobs and investment as well as tackling obstacles that could otherwise dampen those opportunities. At the moment there are worrying gaps in Scotland’s skills pipeline.”

Norwegian potential

BAE Systems are building Type 26 frigates for the Royal Navy including HMS Belfast and HMS Birmingham in Govan.

More investment could be on its way to the Govan shipyard, with the Norwegian government reportedly keen to purchase Type 26 frigates. Defence Secretary John Healey has told MPs he has “been working hard to persuade the Norwegians” about taking on the frigates.

READ MORE: Strategic Defence Review: SNP MP urges UK to ‘rethink priorities’ and look to Europe

In response to parliamentary questions, Ms Forbes, in an apparent acknowledgment of the benefits to the economy, has stressed the “potential industrial and employment opportunities for Scotland are significant” if Norway does press ahead with Clyde-built frigates.

She said: “Officials from the UK and Scottish governments have held constructive informal discussions around how the bid might be best supported.”

A Scottish Government source suggested SNP ministers “want to move on it”, but are wrestling with how to “manage it within the party”. The insider added: “Some people find it exasperating and peculiar. It’s just a bit out of place now in the new reality we are in.”

When the Scottish Enterprise row emerged earlier this month, Mr Swinney told journalists he was sticking to his guns.

He said: “We have a policy position on the use of Scottish public expenditure for the manufacture of munitions. We apply that consistently and that remains the Government's position.”

But speaking on the Holyrood Sources podcast this week, he opened the door to a change of heart, stating that “issues can be reconsidered”.

He said: “I’m conscious we are living in a very different context today. I do think the Russian threat is very real. We have to consider these questions.”