David Maddox: A strategy which may have gained nothing

WHAT is going on? Many Nationalists must have asked themselves that when they learned that their leader believes "independence is no longer the centre of gravity" in Scottish politics.

If Alex Salmond – the head of a party whose raison d'etre is independence – believes that, then what hope is there for the cause? This was a man who, in November 2007, was boasting that independence was just a decade away.

There have been increasing signs of tiredness and desperation from the First Minister and some yesterday were wondering whether he had simply made a gaffe as the pressure mounts ahead of the Holyrood election next year.

He has just come through a deflating general election where his party was crushed by Labour and is staring defeat in the face in 2011. There has even been speculation he might step aside for Nicola Sturgeon.

But the truth is that this is part of a new strategy by the SNP leadership, which is much more of the gradualist view of slow progression towards independence. Mr Salmond is simply following both the money and the pragmatic path.

Since his ill-advised declaration of independence by 2017, Scotland has taken the full brunt of the banking crisis, an event which left serious questions about whether, as a small country, it could have saved its two giant banks RBS and HBOS. Mr Salmond's march towards independence was stopped in its tracks. Then there was his offer of a multi-option referendum to include Calman, to bring the other parties on board. This has failed spectacularly and hardly registered with voters.

But the latest and highly significant development is the launch of the campaign for fiscal autonomy. This is being run by a former merchant banker Ben Thomson, chairman of the centre-right think-tank Reform Scotland, and one of the wealthiest men north of the Border. It has also attracted support from other top businessmen who are willing to put their money behind this campaign.

So while fiscal autonomy falls short of independence, it would be an important step towards that goal, which Mr Salmond would like to be credited with. In this sense, his comment on the centre of gravity being away from independence is simply accurate. However, his hopes of using the Calman reforms coming through the Scotland Act later this year as a bridge to a referendum may not succeed as the unionist parties are set against this option.

So the real danger is that Mr Salmond has compromised himself and gained almost nothing from it.