Analysis: Giving youth a chance could be mantra of successful SNP party

One of the most interesting aspects of The Scotsman’s most recent poll undertaken by Savanta ComRes is the divide amongst the young and the old on policy.

The youth vote is critical to the success of the SNP

The young, which refers to those aged between 16 and 34, overwhelmingly support reform of the Gender Recognition Act (GRA), for example – a key policy driving a wedge between the warring factions of the SNP.

It is therefore unsurprising and perhaps even telling of the SNP’s own understanding of its support that Nicola Sturgeon addressed her youngest members in a direct video plea to Twitter a handful of weeks ago on the issue.

Speaking directly to members of her party, she pleaded with young activists not to leave in droves due to the controversy around GRA reform.

The reason why? The young fundamentally form the bedrock of the First Minister’s popular support in the polls.

Domestically, a majority of 16 to 34-year-olds trust the SNP most with key issues such as healthcare (51 per cent), education (52 per cent) and improving the standard of living (50 per cent).

The party is well ahead of the traditionally stronger Conservatives on issues such as the economy, Brexit and protecting jobs, trusted by 51, 47 and 47 per cent on each issue respectively – way ahead of the Tories’ ratings of nine, 11 and 7 per cent of young people.

In fact, Scottish Labour is the preferred second choice on most issues for young voters.

This inevitably translates into voting intention. Two thirds (66 per cent) of 16 to 34-year-olds plan to vote SNP in their constituencies, half will vote for the party on the list.

They are most likely to feel Scottish, not British, with more than half of 16 to 24-year-olds (53 per cent) stating that is how they identify, compared with the next highest of 38 per cent for 25 to 34-year-olds.

Not only are those younger the most likely to back independence – though support is broadly the same across all ages between 16 and 55 at around 58 per cent – they are by a distance the most likely to be undecided.

For 16 to 34-year-olds, 13 per cent are undecided compared to the next highest of 11 per cent for 35 to 54-year-olds.

However, one in five (19 per cent) of the youngest of all – those aged 16 to 24 – are undecided.

These are the people the SNP must convince not only to support for independence, but to vote for independence.

The vast majority – 73 per cent – of young voters want to see indyref2 within the next parliamentary session.

Steering away from policy choices the youngest of Scots overwhelmingly support would therefore be a questionable strategy for any who wish to see independence any time soon.

The SNP is at its strongest when you speak to those aged 16 to 34, but its appeal wanes as you speak to older Scots who prefer to vote for the Conservatives.

It is well known that older people are more likely to turn out, but it makes sense for the SNP to keep the younger voter on side.

After all, it is they who the party hope will get them over the line and secure Scottish independence, whenever that referendum might take place.

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