Phone app can tell how long cancer patients have left to live

SCIENTISTS have developed a new system to predict how long patients with terminal cancer have left to live, which could be accessed on mobile phones.

The research, funded by Cancer Research UK, uses blood tests, pulse rate and symptoms to estimate life expectancy of patients. The system, which could be used by doctors using mobile phone applications, is thought to be better at predicting survival rates than a medic.

Camapigners hope it will help families and carers to make plans for the care and treatment of patients close to the end of their lives.

The new system is being presented today at the National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Cancer Conference in Liverpool.

Scientists believe the model - currently being developed into a computer program - could help to give a more accurate picture of whether patients might have only two weeks or two months left to live, independently of a doctor's estimate.

The study focused on 18 palliative care services, including hospices, hospital support teams and community service, and more than 1,000 patients with advanced cancer who were no longer receiving treatment.

Based on their observations, the researchers used a combination of factors, such as blood tests, pulse rate, weight loss, tiredness, breathlessness and white blood cell count, to produce algorithms to calculate an estimate of life expectancy.

• Information is vital to carers

The scientists claim that one of the scales they developed, which does not require a blood test, provides a prediction of survival as good as a doctor's estimate.

But the other version, which does use a blood test, is believed to be better than a clinician's prognosis. The model could also be adapted to a patient who may not be able to respond to questions about their health.

Dr Paddy Stone, lead study author based at St George's University of London, said: "These scales can provide valuable information for patients, carers and health professionals.

"It is important to remember that these results do not provide a definitive model for predicting how long someone will live, but it will give everyone concerned a clearer idea of what it is likely to happen.

"This study provides a solid starting point for improving accuracy in survival predictions, which can continue to be refined and improved."

Professor Chris Todd, based at the University of Manchester, said: "We are already looking at how to improve the prediction models and how to make them readily available to clinicians through, for example, iPhones and other mobile devices."

Mike Hobday, head of campaigns at Macmillan Cancer Support, said: "This scale could prove useful to patients, families and clinicians who are wondering whether to begin discussions around palliative care arrangements.

All too often this conversation is left until it is too late to make arrangements.

"Having the conversation at an earlier point, alongside ensuring a 24-hour community nursing service is in place, will vastly improve the chances of the 57 per cent of people with a cancer diagnosis who want to die at home being able to do so."