Waleed Ibrahim: Iraq's neighbours seek to determine its political fate

THE United States might be trying to disentangle itself from Iraq, but there is no shortage of contenders to take its place.

A battle between Iraq's neighbours for influence in Baghdad is being played out between Iraq's Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, complicating efforts to stitch together a government three months after an inconclusive election.

Failure to reconcile their rival interests could yet delay the government for months to come, further testing stability as all but 50,000 US troops withdraw over the summer.

"The train leading to the formation of an Iraqi government will depart from Saudi Arabia, passing through Iran, Turkey and Syria, before reaching Baghdad," an Iraqi political analyst said.

"The United States is not alone," he added.

The 7 March vote was narrowly won by the cross-sectarian Iraqiya alliance, led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi and heavily backed by Iraq's once-dominant Sunni minority.

But Iraqiya polled too few votes to form a government on its own, and now the race is on to secure a governing majority in the new 325-seat parliament after the supreme court on Tuesday certified the results.

All sides say there is room for all in the next government, but key is who leads it and takes the post of prime minister.

Washington says it wants a government that respects the will of the voters, hoping for a broad coalition reflecting Iraqiya's victory and aiding stability as the US military cuts troop numbers from just under 90,000 to 50,000 by September.

But Iran has other ideas. Mainly Shiite Iran is backing a Shiite-led government of prime minister's Nuri al-Maliki's second-placed State of Law and the third-placed Iraqi National Alliance of anti-US cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

The two announced an alliance in principle on 4 May. But analysts say Iran is lukewarm on the prospect of Mr Maliki staying on as prime minister, fuelling a dispute between the two blocs over who should head the government.

Tehran faces competition from Saudi Arabia, which sees itself as the bastion of Sunni Islam and is alarmed at rising Iranian influence and the dominance of Iraq's previously disempowered Shiite majority since the 2003 US invasion.

Saudi Arabia is backing Iraqiya and Mr Allawi.

Gala Riani of IHS Global Insight said the deadlock in Iraq was the result of political immaturity, weak rules and "the salience of ethno-national and sectarian identities".

"Certainly Iraq's neighbours have all in one way or another exacerbated these divides by playing on them and using them to their advantage to ensure that the balance of power in Iraq does not tip against them," Ms Riani said.

Overall violence in Iraq has dropped sharply from the all-out sectarian war of 2006-7, but the situation is fragile, and a spike in civilian casualties over the past two months suggests insurgents are trying exploit the power vacuum.

Mr Allawi has warned Iraq risks greater sectarian bloodshed if Sunni-backed Iraqiya does not lead the next government, which will probably preside over the lucrative revival of the stagnant oil industry on the back of multibillion-dollar deals.

Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal is reported to have accused Mr Maliki last month of trying to "hijack" the election, to "deny the Iraqi people their legitimately elected government".

Mr Maliki, who has often accused unnamed Gulf Arab countries of supporting Sunni Islamist insurgents in Iraq, shot back, saying Prince Turki was behaving "as if he is part of the Iraqi conflict".

It was a telling comment.

"The Iraqi issue is not purely a domestic Iraqi issue," said Iraqi analyst Nabeel Yasin. "Regional and international players are active. This has complicated the Iraqi issue and made it difficult to predict what might happen."

US troops are set to leave Iraq by the end of 2011, and ideological arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran look well placed to expand the influence garnered since the invasion.

But they are not alone. Syria too, accused by Mr Maliki of harbouring Baathist allies of Saddam Hussein, is keen to keep him out of government.

Turkey, battling a decades-long guerrilla war by Kurdish separatists in its south-east, is watching Kurdish aspirations in the neighbouring, semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq.

The next Iraqi government will face continued tensions over the disputed regions adjacent to Kurdistan, including the oil-rich city of Kirkuk that has long been coveted by the Kurds.

Turkey wants a strong government in Baghdad that can rein in the Kurds. Syria also has a Kurdish minority.