Tim Fish: Carriers essential for future defence of UK

THE Queen Elizabeth-class carriers are essential for the defence of the UK, although admittedly it may not look that way considering the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

While it is important to have the equipment to fight current wars, it is even more vital to prepare for the future.

The latest 333 million contract announcement by the MoD is a reasonably large chunk, but it proves that despite the rumours the procurement of the carriers is continuing unabated. With the increasing sums spent on the ships it becomes more unlikely they will be cancelled or curtailed. There would be significant financial penalties if the MoD did so. The carriers were the flagship of the government's Strategic Defence Review in 1998 and to cancel them would be a major embarrassment.

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Cuts will most likely be on the periphery of each service and include reductions in numbers of ships/aircraft/vehicles. These cuts will all reduce the capability of the services by far more than the savings are worth. Looking ahead, the projects most at risk are procurement programmes that have not yet been committed to by the MoD. The successor Trident submarine force could be reduced to three boats, putting Britain's continuous at-sea deterrence capability at risk. The three remaining Astute-class submarines may not be ordered, and many of the Royal Navy's frigates and destroyers may not be replaced.

The navy has already faced swingeing cuts to its surface fleet to pay for the carriers and many feel that it has mortgaged its future on these vessels. It is difficult to see where further cuts can be made without a significant loss in capability. The Royal Navy has striven to maintain a balanced fleet of warships, but there have to be enough of them on the production line to ensure we have the capability to build our own naval vessels.

• Tim Fish is Jane's maritime reporter.