New threats to peace process

THE war may be over in Northern Ireland, but winning the peace looks more problematic.

On the Unionist side, Mr Trimble’s party has set an 18 January deadline for Republicans to guarantee the IRA will be disbanded, or he has vowed to take the Ulster Unionists out of the Northern Ireland executive. Even this has not proved tough enough for his party leadership, the 860-strong Ulster Unionist Council, which effectively ditched the Good Friday Agreement two weeks ago.

We have been here several times before. The peace process, such as it is, has converted civil war into armed truce. Most people in Northern Ireland are grateful for that small mercy. The Republicans have taken token steps towards arms decommissioning and made a half-hearted apology for past murders. But they are taking a long time to evolve into a democratic party - no surprise - and their military wing continues to train, gather intelligence and test weapons (in Columbia). Something short of a return to war is needed to persuade Sinn Fein’s "moderates" to accelerate internal reform. We may require another bout of direct rule to cool the Unionist hot-heads and remind Republican ministers that the perks of high office come with a price.

Meanwhile, Dr John Reid, the Northern Ireland Secretary, has said Tony Blair wants to meet the Sinn Fein president, Gerry Adams, as soon as possible to discuss the situation. Again, this is par for the course but necessary in the circumstances. The British government (and perhaps the US administration) will have to do a lot more hand-holding before this crisis is over. It is all very messy, but better than the obvious alternative. There is no Plan B.