Douglas Hamilton: All bets are off … at least for now

But nobody is ready to take a gamble. They suspect the tables are rigged. Palestinians say Israel is not interested in a peace treaty. Israel says the truth is the other way around.

United States president Barack Obama sees an agreement soon as "a vital national security interest", as the US battles Islamic militants abroad, and may propose a take-it-or-leave-it deal.

For now, Mr Obama wants the US's ally Israel to break a 15-month deadlock by making concessions to the Palestinians on Jewish settlements and the future of Jerusalem as a shared capital.

Israeli leaders say he is unfairly blaming them for frustrating "naive" peace expectations. They also deny any link between this conflict and violent Islamic "jihadism". Deputy foreign minister Danny Ayalon claims Mr Obama's course only encourages the Palestinians to continue sitting back, waiting for him "to deliver them Israel on a platter".

But defence minister Ehud Barak yesterday warned Israel's ruling coalition not to forget how much American help it gets. It must show Mr Obama that Israel sincerely wants a peace deal, he said.

The Palestinians, meanwhile, are pleased the US president speaks "in such clear terms about how a Palestinian state is in US interests", said Nabil Abu Rdainah, top aide to president Mahmoud Abbas. But it is not yet clear what Mr Obama can achieve. "The peace process is facing a real stalemate," he said.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is officially studying Mr Obama's recent suggestions for moves he expects this month to get the stalled talks restarted. But no major concessions are likely, say political sources close to the premier.

Israel sees the White House team as the problem and is turning to the pro-Israeli stalwarts in the US Congress to hold the Obama administration in check.

The three leaders hold cards that pose big risks.

Mr Abbas gambled and lost last October by bowing to Mr Obama's appeal to defer a United Nations report alleging Israeli war crimes in Gaza. His popularity plunged and in Gaza he was branded a "traitor". For now, he is staying out of the spotlight.

Mr Netanyahu relies for his coalition's survival on rightist and religious parties that oppose a retreat from settlements and could bring down the government to stop it.

Mr Obama would be gambling with his Democratic Party majority in Congress in the coming November election if he were to risk taking an unprecedented tough line with Israel's leaders.

An Israeli political source said Mr Netanyahu's strategy for now "is to gain time" until the November congressional elections.

Meantime, he will go on warning that a nuclear threat from Iran is the far more urgent problem for all, regardless of the occupation of the West Bank or the future of Jerusalem.

While rejecting any return to organised violence, Mr Abbas will not resume talks that have been suspended for the past 15 months until Israel halts all settlement building and makes clear what sort of Palestinian state it is prepared to see as its neighbour.

Jericho's casino was full of Israelis until the Palestinian uprising of 2000.

Now the roulette wheels and poker machines stand spookily in the gloom, waiting for action that is unlikely any time soon.