Andrew Whitaker: Veteran left-winger Ken Livingstone could hold his party leader's fate in his hands

ED MILIBAND made great play of saying a Labour victory in Scotland would be the party's first big fightback when he was elected leader last year.

But Scottish Labour's trouncing at the hands of the Scottish electorate and the SNP a fortnight ago clearly leaves a number of lessons for Mr Miliband.

Labour performed well in the Welsh Assembly elections and held its own in many parts of England, but Mr Miliband's election night was tarnished by its dire results in Scotland.

It would be unfair to blame the UK Labour leader for the Scottish party's failure, but Mr Miliband would do well to take note of one of the key factors in the election defeat – that the collapse of the Lib Dem vote does not automatically lead to a surge in support for Labour.

In many ways, Mr Miliband has done well as Labour leader, uniting the previously warring factions of his party and coming up with strong key themes such as addressing the huge gap between rich and poor that exists in the UK.

He will fancy his party's chances of a swift return to power, because of the unpopularity of the Tory-Lib Dem coalition government's cuts programme.

But the Labour leader would be wrong to assume that an election victory will be delivered simply by the expected collapse in the Lib Dem vote over anger at Nick Clegg's involvement in the coalition.

It's entirely possible the Tories could pick-up a large number of Lib Dem Westminster seats at the next election, particularly in the south of England.

The SNP's capture of many former Lib Dem seats in Scotland shows why Mr Miliband needs to avoid basing his party's campaign strategy on attacking the Lib Dems above all else and risk letting the Tories off the hook.

He clearly has a lot to think about in the aftermath of the Holyrood election result, but there is a bigger test of his leadership just around the corner in the shape of the London mayoral election next year.

How the electorate of the highly marginal UK capital vote in the contest between colourful Tory incumbent Boris Johnson and charismatic left-winger Ken Livingstone will be a much clearer barometer as to how the next general election might go.

The maverick Mr Livingstone, one of the most astute and experienced Labour politicians around, was, arguably, unlucky to be turfed out of office three years ago following what many commentators viewed as two successful terms as mayor and a stint in the 1980s as Greater London Council leader.

Now Mr Livingstone, who adopts a populist, almost US-style of campaigning, similar to that of First Minister Alex Salmond, in many ways holds the fate of Mr Miliband in his hands.

But, however the result of that election goes, it's almost certainly going to deliver a clearer view of how Mr Miliband's Labour might fare in the next general election than did the Holyrood poll of a fortnight ago.