Tom Peterkin: Events of the next 1,000 days have a huge part to play in Salmond’s referendum plans

If A week is a long time in politics then 1,000 days is the equivalent of a political aeon. This week saw the 1,000th day since the Lockerbie bomber was controversially released by Kenny MacAskill.

That “milestone” led to a bit of discussion in the Holyrood canteen – not so much on the remarkable longevity of a man who supposedly only had three months to live. It was more that the brouhaha and wall-to-wall coverage associated with Megrahi’s journey to Tripoli seemed to belong to a different age.

Since his release in August 2009, we have seen a general election, a Scottish election and local government elections. Political leaders have departed (Gordon Brown, Iain Gray, Annabel Goldie, Tavish Scott). Fortunes and reputations of others have risen and fallen (David Cameron, Nick Clegg).

Alex Salmond’s stock soared at the Scottish election but was checked slightly at the local elections. But the point was that it had been 1,000 days since Megrahi’s release and, as someone cleverly noted, there is a certain symmetry in that there are another 1,000 days to go before Salmond holds his independence referendum.

Given that so much water has flowed under the bridge since the Megrahi release – to borrow Harold MacMillan’s memorable phrase – “events, dear boy, events” can still play a huge role in whether or not Salmond’s quest for an independent Scotland is successful.

This week Cameron has yet again indicated that he is fairly relaxed about the timing of the referendum suggesting that Salmond’s proposal of autumn 2014 will come to pass.

Salmond’s referendum year was also mentioned this week by Sir Mervyn King, the Governer of the Bank of England. King suggested that it will take until 2014 for the UK economy to recover to its pre-crisis level.

So Salmond faces the challenge of persuading the voters that independence will lift the economic gloom – a task that could prove difficult if Scots take the view that being part of a United Kingdom offers some protection against the financial storm.

“That’s the gamble that Salmond seems prepared to take,” said one senior UK government source yesterday, adding that the coalition would be doing its utmost to ensure that arguments over how the referendum will be held do not bog down arguments over the economic benefits or otherwise of independence.

He pointed out that the Scottish Government’s referendum consultation, which is expected to take issue with the UK government’s insistence on a single question, has yet to be published.

“The SNP will be launching their independence campaign in a few days’ time, yet they’ve still not sorted out what the vote will be on. We need to get on with the real debate – beyond the process,” he said.

Regardless of whether the debate is about process or independence itself, 1,000 days is still a hell of a long way to go.