Tavish Scott: 2013 is no time for Labour to sit back

IT IS a a strange year next year, 2013. There are no elections. That will be an enormous relief for the electorate, to say nothing of any Liberal Democrat.

But despite that hiatus, this is no time for politicians to take their foot of the accelerator.

Labour is the party with momentum. It performed better than expected in Scotland’s local elections and across England and Wales exceeded predictions on how many local council seats it would gain. The UK media attention was all about Glasgow. Nationalist hype had decreed this was the only city to be interested in. On polling day, leading Nationalists were tweeting that they had won. So when they emerged not even as the biggest party, but as a minority in opposition, the national media had its story: Labour stop Nationalist juggernaut.

But it is not the complete picture. As far as I can discern Labour strategists do not know how they won. It is a nice problem to have. I would rather assess a victory than a defeat. There have been open displays of Nationalist backbiting on why they lost. The “Great Leader” is taking some stick both for his relationship to Rupert Murdoch and for a more dangerous political feature – arrogance. Nationalists said in the run up to the elections that Salmond’s cosy relationship with Murdoch was not an issue. They know it is now.

But for Labour the real danger is complacency about Scotland. Winning councils it expected to lose will understandably lead to a feeling that the Nationalist tide has turned. Witness too some party dinosaurs bemoaning fair votes for local elections. Expect more of that.

But the worst thing Labour could do is once again take Scotland for granted. The 2010 UK general election shows most aspiring politicians of the left seek election to Westminster and not the Scottish Parliament. Until that changes, Labour will not seriously challenge Alex Salmond’s tenancy of Bute House.

However, with Ed Milliband’s leadership now safe, Labour is increasingly confident about the 2015 UK election. The coalition is under enormous pressure. The Chancellor lacks new ideas on instigating growth in the economy. So the temptation for Labour will be to sit tight, let the coalition implode and believe that it will soon be back in power.

A Labour Party that looks electable across the UK is certainly bad news for Salmond. His strategy around the independence referendum was predicated on David Cameron being the likely Prime Minister post-2015. “Rid us of those horrible Tories” would have been part of the message. Now that lacks credibility.

What Labour must do is to lead a positive campaign for Scotland as part of the UK. Do not wait for Salmond to launch the taxpayer-funded independence campaign. Get out in front. Lead. Show that it cares about the future of the nation. This is not the time to put the feet up. But even with Scotland’s future at stake, I fear that is what will happen.

• Tavish Scott is Liberal Democrat MSP for Shetland