Stephen Halliday: Calling the SPL race early shows people never learn

IN FAILING to learn lessons from even its most recent history, the Scottish football community has few equals.

It is just over three weeks since pundits, punters and bookmakers alike were falling over themselves in the rush to proclaim Rangers as home and dry in their pursuit of a fourth consecutive SPL title.

The occasion of Celtic’s dismal performance in drawing 0-0 at home to Hibs, a result which left them 12 points adrift of the reigning champions, was enough to convince many observers that there was no way back for Neil Lennon’s men in their bid to wrest the championship away from Ibrox.

Yet when Rangers headed back up the M77 yesterday afternoon, following their first league defeat of the campaign, their lead had been whittled down to a far less commanding four points.

Celtic’s success in winning their rescheduled fixture at home to Dunfermline last Wednesday and following it up with the thumping victory over St Mirren at Parkhead on Saturday allowed that previously unlikely scenario to unfold.

Yet jumping to conclusions has become as much a part of an SPL title race as refereeing controversies or conspiracy theories. Those all too easily reached assumptions have regularly been exposed as flawed over the past few campaigns.

Last season, of course, saw Celtic move eight points clear of Rangers with an 3-0 Old Firm victory at Parkhead in February, which had many of even the most optimistic of Ibrox followers preparing themselves for the championship trophy changing hands.

Yet it was Rangers, courtesy of a grandstand finish to the season and Celtic’s dramatic defeat at Inverness, who were celebrating in May.

Likewise in 2008-09, when Celtic moved eight points clear at the turn of the year thanks to Scott McDonald’s winner at Ibrox in the Old Firm festive showdown, were the Parkhead men prematurely acclaimed as champions-elect before losing their way and losing the crown on the final day of the season. The roles had been reversed the previous year, Rangers seeing a six-point lead with two games in hand steadily eroded in the campaign which saw them reach the Uefa Cup final.

Celtic rattled off seven consecutive wins at the end of the season, including two in Old Firm games, to emerge triumphant and win a third straight title under Gordon Strachan’s guidance.

The revelation this week that Lennon supported a move to bring Strachan back to the club in an advisory capacity could be viewed as evidence that Celtic’s hierarchy had become less than convinced of their current manager’s capacity to deliver a title-winning side. If so, then that is another conclusion which may well prove to have been reached with injudicious haste.

For all of the flaws and frailties displayed by Lennon’s team so far this season, they now look as if they are picking up the kind of momentum required to achieve the consistency which could see the 40-year-old lead them to a first championship in four years.

Certainly, the alarm bells will be ringing for Rangers supporters who have witnessed their team’s last two matches.

The goalless draw at home to St Johnstone and yesterday’s 1-0 loss at Kilmarnock have exposed a glaring lack of sharpness and creativity in Ally McCoist’s team, which he recognises must be addressed quickly.

But McCoist is shrewd enough not to press the panic button and, to his credit, was among the apparently small section of the Scottish football fraternity who did not regard the league race as all but run when Rangers forged such a healthy early season lead.

By the time the dust settles on the next Old Firm showdown, at Celtic Park on 28 December, there will doubtless be no shortage of bold declarations made on where the SPL trophy will reside.

Whatever they are, it may be wise to ignore them.