Scottish independence: Boris Johnson could be visiting Scotland a lot, but can he stop indyref2? – Ian Swanson

After his flying visit to Scotland, which included a tour of the Valneva vaccine factory in Livingston, due to deliver 60 million doses for the UK by the end of the year, Boris Johnson is said to be planning lots more trips north of the border – all essential journeys, no doubt.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to visit Scotland every two months (Picture: Yui Mok/PA)

Despite the Prime Minister’s poor poll ratings here, he plans to “lead from the front” in the campaign to save the Union, returning to Scotland roughly every two months, according to the Sunday Times.

The new Tory strategy comes as all the parties gear up for the Holyrood elections in May when the prospect of a second independence referendum will be centre stage.

But the cunning plan flies in the face of advice offered at the weekend by Blair McDougall, head strategist for the victorious Better Together campaign during the 2014 referendum.

He said Mr Johnson should should stop being the “villain” the SNP wanted him to be, and take a step back. In other words, he should take a leaf out of David Cameron’s book.

“Cameron understood he was not the man who was going to save the Union and it was going to be saved in Scotland,” said Mr McDougall.

Twenty consecutive opinion polls have now shown a majority for independence (after don’t knows are excluded) and the SNP looks on course to win an overall majority at the elections – or if not, they will get it in combination with the pro-independence Greens.

Mr Johnson – who used last week’s visit to declare that independence was “irrelevant” to most Scots because they were more concerned about Covid – has repeatedly said he will not agree to a Section 30 order allowing the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum, as David Cameron did.

The SNP response has been to argue that just saying no would become “unsustainable” if the SNP wins a clear mandate for a fresh vote.

In a democracy, that would be the usual expectation, but Mr Johnson does not always accept political norms, as seen in his flat refusal to sack Dominic Cummings over his flouting of Covid rules or Priti Patel despite his own ethics adviser concluding she had bullied civil servants.

And Mr Johnson has been bolstered in his intransigence over indyref2 by advice from former Chancellor George Osborne, who has said the worst evening he spent in Downing Street was September 18, 2014, waiting with David Cameron for the referendum result, wondering if they had lost Scotland.

Now he urges the Prime Minister: “Refuse to hold a referendum. It's the only sure way you won't lose one.”

But the SNP now has a fall-back plan. The Road to a Referendum, which looks remarkably like the Plan B which Edinburgh South West MP Joanna Cherry has long called for, would see the Scottish Parliament go ahead and pass a Referendum Bill, challenging the UK government to accept that Holyrood already has the power to legislate for a referendum or let the courts decide.

The SNP has made clear the referendum it plans to hold would be legal and would not happen until after the pandemic.

There’s no guarantee what the result would be. But if Scotland were to become independent Mr Johnson would naturally be a welcome visitor.

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