Lesley Riddoch: Can the Tories keep voters 'up north' happy and cement Red Wall?

Tories know they have to keep their new supporters ‘up north’ happy, even if it means dipping into the Labour playbook, writes Lesley Riddoch.

Sajid Javid and Boris Johnson. Picture: PA

Boris Johnson is “considering” a mansion tax and a raid on pensions.

Yes, you read that right.

The Tory leader, who attacked Labour plans as mayor of London, might introduce just such a “tax on London” in next month’s Budget, according to a Conservative-supporting Sunday newspaper.

A levy on homes worth £2 million was first championed by Ed Miliband in the 2015 election and ridiculed by Johnson who said it would “totally clobber” families and asset-rich but cash-poor elderly people.

Now though, it seems a “mansion tax” has recently been discussed at the highest levels of the Treasury and Number 10. It could either be a “recurring” wealth tax (primarily affecting London and the south-east) introduced in the form of a levy, or an extra higher band of council tax.

There’s also speculation Sajid Javid is set to cut rates of pension tax relief in the budget, thereby raising more than £10bn annually for the Treasury.

What?

Does the new(ish) Tory leader not worry about alienating large swathes of his own traditional support? Or has Dominic Cummings already calculated that wealthy southerners without any other political “home,” can easily be squeezed to raise revenue, prove Johnson’s “One Nation” credentials and impress new working-class Tory voters?

As with all Boris masterplans, no-one else really knows.

It’s equally likely this is just another weekend PR exercise, like the proposal to move the House of Lords to York or the Scotland-Ireland bridge. A radical-sounding policy designed to play well with blue-collar Tory supporters, in the sure and certain knowledge another more eye-catching wheeze will eclipse all thought of Mansion Taxes by the time Budget Day actually rolls around.

But Boris does need to do something.

Keeping 'Red Wall' seats

He may have won “Red Wall” Labour seats in December, but hasn’t yet sealed the deal with voters. Something big, surprising, bold and unexpected is needed to validate his campaign rhetoric and prove that his premiership will not repeat Theresa May’s long, dreary time at the top.

A busy, pre-recess week that gives the go-ahead for HS2 and imposes new tax on big pensions and posh southern homes would seem likely to do the trick. But it might also backfire.

It’s quite possible working-class voters in the north of England voted Tory precisely because Boris sold them the illusion of individual social mobility as easier to reach and more likely to be delivered than Labour’s collectivist alternative.

Watching a new Tory leader tax the perks of “success” might not strike the right note with such “aspirational” voters.

Boris believes that taxing the over-heated south is a guaranteed vote-winner with northerners. That might be true, as long as they can be certain the resulting income is spent (not just promised) on capital projects that permanently redistribute wealth from the south-east. Despite talk of Freeports and 5G early rollouts, does anyone believe such radical change is really in

Boris Johnson’s sights?

HS2

What about HS2 then – will that seal the deal?

Boris is expected to give the go-ahead for the first stretch of the high-speed rail link tomorrow, infuriating many Tories and southern sceptics. That in itself will provide a sense of achievement for northern city mayors. Even though 125 miles of new track connecting London and Brum is hardly the Polar Express.

Tory party donors apparently warned that cancelling HS2 would put 400 construction firms out of business and destroy 250,000 supply chain jobs. So, it seems the face-saving first section of the line will be built, with stages further north to Leeds and Manchester to be decided on later. Of course, like the Lords moving to York and the Mansion Tax moving on to the statute books, the full rollout of HS2 might just not make it. Will northern voters applaud this first step anyway or (like most Scots) see right through the transformational claims being made for HS2?

Much depends on what these new Tory voters really want.

Tory strategists fear they’ve only “lent” their votes to the party because of a temporary, toxic combination of Brexit, Corbyn and an “over-promised” manifesto, and could easily revert to Labour with a new leader and perhaps a more moderate veneer.

Many Labour activists fear exactly the opposite.

They believe some Red Wall swing voters have been working-class Tories all along, “underground” since the days of Margaret Thatcher until Boris managed to weaponise Brexit, overcome tribal loyalties and insist he could “Make Britain Great Again”.

Indeed, YouGov found that at the 2019 election 48 per cent of voters in social classes C2DE voted Tory, while only 43 per cent of ABC1s did.

So, this call to patriotism, identity and English nationalism seems to connect with working class voters. It wasn’t the economy, it was the Tories’ ability to identify with aspirational working class voters that won it for Boris. That’s why the latest northern additions to Tory ranks were apparently invited into conversation with him to give policy guidance.

Will he listen? After all, they come from very different social and class backgrounds.

'Not your classic Tories'

25-year-old Dehenna Davison, was the first Tory in history to win Bishop Auckland. She grew up on a council estate in Sheffield, her father was a stonemason, killed in a pub when she was just 13. Her mother was a nursery nurse and Dehenna herself worked in a computer games store.

Ian Levy won Blyth Valley, which Labour had held since the seat’s creation in 1950. He was an NHS health-care assistant, while Jacob Young, who won Redcar, opted to work his

Christmas day shift at a Teesside chemical plant, because he “couldn’t drop the lads in it”. He’s 26, one of seven children, and both his father and grandfather worked in local chemical plants.

These are not your classic Tories.

Scots have witnessed that kind of political transformation already.

Part of Ruth Davidson’s appeal was her no-nonsense approach, working-class origins, comprehensive-education, TA army background and love of martial arts – the very antithesis of a typical Tory lady.

Ultimately though, even donning the mantle of Saviour of the Union, Ruth Davidson didn’t get anywhere near her dream of becoming Scottish First Minister.

That would have required transformation of the party – its tone, policies and vision at Westminster level. The tail cannae wag the dog – as Scots have discovered and northern voters are about