Leader: Unionists need to fly the flag for stronger parliament

NATIONALIST spin doctors have been hard at work on the annual and authoritative survey of Scottish opinion published by the Scottish Centre for Social Research.

Produced by impartial academics, its findings on what Scots think about the constitutional future carry a lot of weight. According to the SNP, it shows a “surge in support for independence”, a view seemingly backed by the centre’s finding that support for independence is at a six-year high.

The SNP is particularly excited that 65 per cent of people would support independence if that made them better off. Given the current dismal economic climate, it seems reasonable to suspect people would support almost anything if it made them better off. Closer inspection of the findings shows that when Scots are presented with options for governing Scotland then separation commands the support of 32 per cent.

This is indeed a full nine points higher than was the case in last year’s survey and the highest support since the SNP came to power in 2007. But the full historical range of results from the same survey since 1999 also shows that backing for independence moves up and down. At any given time, between a quarter and a third of Scots support independence, and this latest finding is within that range. The survey also shows that nearly twice as many voters – 58 per cent – back devolution, again within a historically consistent range of between a half and two-thirds of Scottish voters supporting home rule. Thus while the current tide may be flowing with the SNP, it may turn again and has a long way to go before it swamps devolutionary unionism.

What also emerges from the survey is that attitudes to independence are dominated by the economy. Only 34 per cent believe Scotland’s economy would be better with independence, about half the number who say they would back independence if it did make them better off. Some 29 per cent think Scotland would have a worse economy under independence and nearly all say independence worries them. Among all Scots, the 46 per cent who are worried about independence outweigh by some margin the 31 per cent who feel confident about it.

It seems clear that if the SNP is to win the independence referendum the party will have to set out a pretty convincing case for a more prosperous Scotland. Against the current international economic backdrop – never mind the UK’s – that is a pretty stiff challenge.

Still, unionists should not relax. The survey finds plenty of evidence to support the view that Scots are primarily interested in a stronger Scottish Parliament. Controlling taxes and benefits now appears to command clear majority support. The challenge for unionists is to meet that aspiration. The lack of campaigning for the extra tax-raising powers contained in the current Scotland Bill suggests that the unionist parties are nowhere near doing so.