Leader: Independence is not overriding priority for all

HOW did the local elections go for the SNP? That is an obvious question to ask in the wake of last Thursday’s political convulsions among Scotland’s local authorities.

Life coaches advise their clients that, if they want to achieve success, they must first visualise all its trappings of wealth and power to have any hope of converting the dream into reality. The SNP took this positive thinking to its logical conclusion at its spring conference, held on the banks of the Clyde, when it proclaimed in ultra-confident terms what it hoped would be a self-fulfilling prophecy of landslide victory at the local authority elections. It was to be the moment when the party would supplement last year’s Holyrood landslide by capturing even Labour’s citadel of Glasgow – “Glasgow will flourish, with the SNP,” predicted Alex Salmond in his speech.

As hubris took over, there was euphoric talk of taking all of Scotland’s cities; in the event, the SNP took one. Now the Nationalists are complaining that the media are not doing justice to their famous victory last Thursday. Whose fault is that? Who defined what victory meant, and then failed to achieve it? In fairness to the SNP, it had little option other than to raise the bar. Desperate to maintain momentum in the run-up to the 2014 referendum, it could hardly afford to suggest that, although it had romped home to an overall majority at Holyrood, the council chambers of Scotland’s biggest cities might be too big a challenge. Its problem now is simply that by raising extravagant expectations for reasons of referendum strategy, it has made its substantial gains look inadequate.

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Yet the SNP did make a significant advance last Thursday. Its additional complement of councillors will not only promote the Nationalist cause in their local communities, they will be an invaluable asset to the Yes campaign when the referendum is held. That will be their main function: despite repeated SNP assurances that the council elections were about local issues, the indiscreet admission by Allison Hunter, the SNP leader in Glasgow, that victory in that city would be a “stepping stone” to independence reflected the party’s real agenda. Judged on those terms, the SNP’s performance last week was a missed opportunity for a great leap forward.

Although all reports from political activists about what they have heard from voters on the doorsteps are largely self-interested and carry a considerable health warning, there is one claim from many sources that rings true and deserves to be taken seriously. That message from the doorsteps is that voters are tired of hearing the issue of constitutional change endlessly canvassed while they themselves are more concerned with day-to-day economic difficulties and crumbling public services. The SNP has to come to terms with the reality that, while independence is the overriding priority for its leadership, activists and supporters, that view is not shared by the wider electorate.

Alex Salmond and his advisers will obviously be concerned about the damaging effects on his reputation of controversies involving Donald Trump or Rupert Murdoch. They are right to be concerned – especially with the First Minister due to be grilled at the Leveson inquiry. But those are lesser worries compared with the risk of a major disconnect from the Scottish public over the government’s priorities. People who have become unemployed or whose jobs are at risk, people threatened with repossession of their homes, families struggling to feed and clothe their children in the face of rising costs, households pole-axed by energy bills – all these and many others stricken by the consequences of recession will not be enthused by a governing party that appears preoccupied with its own pet project rather than with making life more bearable for Scots.

It is undeniable that circumstances have made independence the most significant political issue of today. But if the SNP hopes to recover momentum in the run-up to the referendum, it must recognise the danger that its instinctive preoccupation with the constitutional question could progressively create a rift between itself and voters. Unless it can find a way of narrowing that gulf, while still pursuing its key priority, public disillusionment with the party could set in, depriving it of any chance of achieving its constitutional goal.

The risk to the SNP has increased with last week’s partial Labour recovery. For all Labour’s justifiable celebrations, the election results still demonstrated that the SNP remains Scotland’s dominant party. But its momentum has slowed, the political machine is dented, its leader’s aura has dulled, and questions are beginning to be asked about the SNP’s priorities. Its future will be determined by how sure-footedly it negotiates these conflicting demands.