Jim McCormick: The forthcoming local council elections are promising to be everything but predictable

Single transferable vote puts a new slant, writes Jim McCormick, on who might enjoy the advantage

SCOTLAND goes to the polls on 3 May using the single transferable vote (STV) system to elect local councillors for the second time. And for the first time under devolution, council elections are being held separately from the Holyrood vote – a move seen as essential after the chaos of rejected votes and multiple ballot papers involving both crosses and numbers in 2007.

The STV system is still new and there’s likely to be voter uncertainty on how far to exercise choice between candidates – to make the vote transferable – or cast a straightforward first preference. The outcome in multi-member wards, electing three or four councillors each, is much less predictable than before. And, in a more competitive electoral system, voters’ second preferences will be decisive in determining who wins the final seat in each ward.

What do we already know about second preference voting – and what difference does it make?

We don’t need to look as far back to the 2007 to find out. In the three years running up to May 2012, 33 council by-elections took place in Scotland. In 12 of these, the leading candidate was elected at the first stage with a majority of votes – usually SNP or Labour.

Results are still available for 19 of the remaining by-elections, creating a valuable picture of how second vote transfers from lower-ranked candidates influenced the result – sometimes ensuring the candidate with the most first preferences was pipped at the post.

In total, more than 76,000 voters took part in these by-elections, with around 13,000 second preference votes being allocated. There are big differences between party supporters and between places in whether second preferences are cast at all – only half of a candidate’s votes are transferable in some cases. And a second preference can only be allocated to a candidate still in the race.

These by-elections are not representative of Scotland as a whole, but they did span the cities, Central Belt authorities and rural areas. They reveal a very tight battle: the SNP winning seven and Labour six seats, with independents and Liberal Democrats winning three seats each.

Despite winning most first preference votes in four seats, the Conservatives lost out due to second vote transfers. The first table shows the two candidates left in the final stage. Almost half of these seats came down to a fight between the SNP and Labour. In fact, the SNP was still in the race in all but three of these contests. This helps to explain why the SNP performs best in attracting second preference votes – the party is best at staying the course rather than dropping out in early stages of voting.

The second table shows the SNP marginally ahead of Labour on first preferences (30 per cent v 29 per cent). But look at the final column. The SNP attracted the same share of second preferences as first-round votes, while independents and Liberal Democrats improved and Labour did worse. This reflects two points. The SNP is more popular with other party supporters and independents than Labour is, except among Liberal Democrats who were more evenly split. And the SNP stood in by-elections throughout Scotland. Labour couldn’t attract second preferences if it didn’t field a candidate. Although Labour usually won where the SNP was its main rival, the party’s position was weak elsewhere.

What of the Conservatives, who will be looking for signs of progress in local government after its drop in support at last year’s Holyrood election?

Their challenge is summed up in places where they won most first preferences (and would have taken the seat under the old first past-the-post system) but lost out on second transfers. In a tight contest in Aboyne, Aberdeenshire, the Tories finished ahead of the Lib Dem candidate at the first count, only to be overtaken by the Lib Dem thanks to favourable transfers from SNP and independent supporters.

The same happened in Bearsden, where Labour voters helped tip the scales against the leading Conservative.

In Edinburgh’s City Centre ward, Green as well as Labour voters gave enough transfers to the SNP to overtake the Conservative who had led at the first stage. And in Dumfries Abbey ward, one of the few contests where the SNP came third, their supporters favoured Labour to again reverse a slim Tory lead.

Although the Conservatives were most affected by this leapfrog effect, the SNP also missed out in a couple of seats. In Angus, Conservative and Labour transfers to the independent candidate were enough to overtake the SNP in Carnoustie. In an Inverness ward, the Lib Dem candidate came from behind to beat the SNP thanks to favourable transfers from both Tory and Labour supporters.

Across this set of by-elections, independent voters were most likely of all to see their second preferences count as their candidate was more likely to drop out in the early stages (third table).

Their transfers favoured SNP and other independent candidates equally. Tory and Lib Dem voters were next most likely to see their second preferences get counted. While up to one-third of Conservative transfers went to SNP candidates, Lib Dem voters gave a small advantage to Labour.

Were these advances reciprocated? As SNP candidates tend to stay the course, their supporters’ second preferences are less likely to get counted. When they are, Lib Dem candidates are more likely to benefit. And in the few cases when Labour voters had their second preferences counted, SNP or Lib Dem candidates did best, depending on who was left in the contest.

By-elections replace a single councillor, so they can’t tell us what will happen in the local elections for multi-member wards. On 3 May, candidates who top the poll and exceed the quota will have first advantage: their “surplus” votes will then be shared out in line with lower preferences.However, if the quota isn’t met, the lowest-ranked candidates will drop out and all of their transfers shared between the others. Although these candidates lose, their supporters still have a say in who gets elected. In some wards in 2007, 10 rounds of counting vote transfers were needed before all seats were filled. Electing Scotland’s councils – proportional, complex and much less predictable than before.

l Jim McCormick is an independent policy adviser