Eddie Barnes: The unionists may find their Yes/No strategy backfires

A SINE qua non of the pro-Union campaign is that there should be just one straight Yes-No question in the forthcoming independence referendum.

From David Cameron downwards, the belief is that the referendum should focus solely on the big question, with no distractions. This should be the moment when Scotland finally chooses, one way or the other: in or out. A question which has hung over Scottish politics forever needs to be settled for good.

The polls suggest currently that the Prime Minister’s call makes political sense. Backing for independence has barely moved since Alex Salmond kicked off the referendum countdown in January. The pro-Union cause taunts Mr Salmond that it is him, not them, who needs a safety net in the form of a second question offering a beefed-up version of devolution.

Mr Cameron believes that the First Minister has made an error in even raising the prospect of such a question, claiming it has clouded the SNP’s central message, exposing their doubts to public sight.

But is it the unionists who are making the error? Should they, in demanding a knock-out contest, be careful what they wish for? The glitch in the pro-Union strategy is the economy; as in everything else, the 2008 crash has changed the nature of the debate.

A long, slow, possibly flat-lining period of post-recession blues looms for as much as a decade into the future. The security blanket of the UK suddenly looks not that cosy. Why stick with nurse for fear of something worse, if nurse is smothering you with a pillow?

One senior Scottish business figure I spoke to recently put it succinctly. The status quo, this person argued, was the worst of all worlds. In this person’s view, anything different was worth a try. This particular business figure was not convinced of independence as an option. But, if it was the only alternative on offer? Then the answer would be a definite yes.

Quite where most people are on this issue is impossible to say. But SNP figures are greatly encouraged by the softness of the pro-Union vote, believing that many people who initially were against independence are now moving into the “don’t know” category. If there was a second question on offer, the likelihood would be that these people would plump for it. What nobody can say is which side of the bar they will move if the middle option isn’t there.

When Mr Cameron met Mr Salmond earlier this year, there were claims afterwards that the Prime Minister had agreed he needed to spell out more clearly his own vision for Scotland after a No vote. Whitehall figures deny he said any such thing.

But if the pro-Union campaign does stick by its single question strategy, the warning signs are out there that it will need to spell out what No means. Without such an offer, and with the UK nurse offering little but pain, the SNP’s medicine suddenly looks all the more appealing.