Duncan Hamilton: A coalition meltdown can only boost the Yes vote for independence

WITH the SNP becoming easily the largest party in Scotland and Labour successfully winning a majority in the totemic Glasgow City Council, the public perception of the Scottish local elections this week will probably be that of a score draw. But what relevance for Scotland did the UK results have as a whole?

In a sense it all depends on what impact, if any, the results have on the two parties within the UK coalition. So, consider their options.

For the Tories, this was a bad night. The setbacks have led to some in the Tory ranks demanding a lurch to the Right. Let’s imagine that happened, and David Cameron put an end to what some MPs describe as the “Lib Dem tail wagging the Tory dog”. What then? Well, in Scotland that would simply alienate an already toxic Tory Party further from voters. Impact on the referendum? A huge gift to the Nationalist camp.

Alternatively, what if the Lib Dems pull stumps? That would have one of two consequences – either the Cameron Government would be forced to limp on as a minority administration, or there would be a general election ushering in the prospect of a Miliband government.

If a Cameron minority government emerges (with Lib Dem support on motions of “no confidence”) it could certainly carry on until 2015. That would have two important consequences for the independence referendum.

First, it would probably mean the Lib Dems rediscovering something of their radical edge (having apparently already ditched federalism and fiscal autonomy) in an effort to win back support in Scotland. If so, that would surely play right into the hands of the “Devo Plus/Devo Max” argument and make the current Cameron position untenable.

Secondly, it would ensure (the referendum being in 2014) that the pre- and post -referendum negotiations were conducted between a minority UK Tory Government and a majority Nationalist SNP Government. The First Minister would relish negotiations on those terms. In short, the emergence of a minority Tory Government would again favour the Yes vote.

What then if the whole coalition collapses; the tensions between the respective back benches reaching crisis point? On that scenario, either the Tories win a majority, or Miliband is swept to power. If the former, we are back where we are now. But what if Ed Miliband found his way to No 10? Would that make a difference to how Scots viewed the referendum to come?

I strongly suspect not. Those who cling to the notion that the way to save the Union is to elect a Labour PM in London miss the point. In 2007, when the SNP first won power there was already a Labour PM, Gordon Brown. Unlike Ed Miliband, he is of emphatically Scottish stock – a son of the manse and was recognised as a serious and heavyweight figure. Even then, Scotland chose to elect the first Nationalist Government ever. And let’s be clear – the 2011 landslide for the Nationalists would have happened even if Gordon Brown had still been Prime Minister. What is happening here is systemic – it is the evolution of a form of Scottish Government which adequately reflects Scottish desire for self-government. It is not about one man, or one party.

The notion, therefore, that the nightmare scenario for the Yes campaign is a Miliband government doesn’t hold. Is it true that most Scots if given the chance to choose between a Labour PM and a Tory PM would choose Labour? Yes indeed. Does that mean that if we had a Labour PM, the view of the merits of staying in the Union would fundamentally alter? Absolutely not. That argument is to confuse entirely party preference and a vote on the constitution. It is no more than wishful thinking.

There are many Labour voters who will vote Yes. After all, the Labour Party in Scotland will continue post-independence. Don’t assume that Ed Miliband has any greater personal resonance with Scottish voters than David Cameron.

Both men are Oxford graduates and emphatically English career politicians. As vast and important as the differences are between studying at Corpus Christi and Brasenose College, most Scots see very little difference between the two men. Neither has ever displayed a sure touch in Scottish politics, Ed Miliband famously even forgetting the name of one of the candidates for the Scottish Labour leadership. Neither – much more substantially – has yet to offer anything radical or even intelligible as an alternative to independence.

Let’s not also get too carried away with what Labour achieved in England. Thirty-eight per cent of the vote in mid-term local government elections in the teeth of a double-dip recession and after the worst received Budget in living memory is no more than a tentative first step. In 1999, William Hague’s Tories won 1,348 council seats (Labour have just won 1,188) and went on to experience a 5 per cent drop in their vote at the subsequent 2001 General Election. I wouldn’t bet against that happening again.