Drew Scott: An independent Scotland won’t be forced to join eurozone

THE Commons paper on Scotland, independence and the EU offers a number of interesting conjectures, not all of which are reliable.

On one reading it buttresses the argument that should Scotland become independent its EU membership would continue uninterrupted. Therefore independence is not “secession”, in the terms of the paper; it is a voluntary and agreed dissolution of the UK. As the paper makes clear, this will give rise to a presumption in favour of continuity of the EU treaty with regard to both components – Scotland and the former UK. To my mind this is a sensible reading of the likely outcome in the event of Scotland becoming independent.

Unfortunately, the paper then becomes muddled, nowhere more so than in an independent Scotland’s obligations vis-à-vis the euro. There is simply no precedent or mechanism under EU law whereby an EU member state can be dragooned, unwillingly, into membership of the eurozone. Before being eligible to join, the currency of the country must have been inside the EU exchange rate mechanism (ERM) for at least two years. ERM membership cannot be required of any country, and even countries whose currencies are inside the ERM voluntarily (such as Sweden’s since 1995) have never been requested – far less compelled – to join the eurozone. It will fall entirely to the government of an independent Scotland to decide its own currency arrangements. Your readers should rest assured that an independent Scotland inside the EU (but not the eurozone) will not be confronted with a multi-billion pound bill to support eurozone countries currently in difficulty with sovereign debt. Finally, on the matter of opt-outs, the UK government seems intent on seeking repatriation of powers from Brussels. What opinion has it had from its lawyers on the legality, not to mention likely success, of this? If successful, this may open up an entirely new landscape of possibilities confronting Scotland in the EU. I wonder if opting out of the Common Fisheries Policy is on Mr Cameron’s list.

• Drew Scott is Professor of European Union Studies, University of Edinburgh.