David Maddox: Europe seems to be evading the PM

NEW year, same old problem, Europe is the issue David Cameron just cannot shake off. The letter published over the weekend signed by 95 Conservative MPs calling for a Westminster “red card” on all EU legislation and directives is a sign that despite the promise of a referendum on EU membership, the Prime Minister has still not gained control of the European issue in his own party.
David Cameron can't shake the Europe issue. Picture: Robert PerryDavid Cameron can't shake the Europe issue. Picture: Robert Perry
David Cameron can't shake the Europe issue. Picture: Robert Perry

The Bloomberg address almost exactly a year ago, where Mr Cameron promised a referendum by 2017, was billed at the time as the Prime Minister finally getting his party to obsess about Europe and killing off the issue prior to the 2015 election. In truth, all it produced was a fragile truce which has now all but evaporated.

The pledge of a referendum on EU membership and a subsequent agreement by the Tory leadership to back a private members bill legislating for one, followed a series of humiliating rebellions by Conservative backbenchers in the Commons.

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The trouble for Mr Cameron is that he is facing a coalition of interests in his own party which are irreconcilable with any position he could possibly hope to satisfy.

First, there are the Bill Cash-types who simply want the UK to leave the EU. Mr Cameron is opposed to that and at best wants a renegotiation. By demanding a red card, the Tory MPs are basically saying they want out of the EU because the effect of being able to veto EU rules is one and the same thing.

Then there are those who are spooked by Ukip and the threat that losing votes to the anti-European Union party poses in terms of keeping marginal seats. The European elections and the prospect of the Tories coming third and Ukip first is enough to get most Conservative MPs’ nerves jangling.

Then there are those who simply hate Mr Cameron and his modernising agenda – not just on the EU but also on gay marriage, climate change and not supporting grammar schools in England.

Speaking to Tory backbenchers, it is clear that loyalty is at best paper-thin, and another major rebellion is perhaps just a matter of time down the line. But a defeat in the Commons now would be different from the ones before and far more damaging. We are now in the red zone, the run-up to the general election in 2015, so any major rebellion is a reflection on the strength of the leadership up for election and the party’s policy.

The irony of all this is that Mr Cameron’s position on Europe – staying in after a renegotiation – probably reflects a majority view in the country.

Not only that, but the detoxified brand of Conservatism he represents is his party’s best hope of being re-elected to government in 2015. It is also hard to think of a Tory figure in parliament who could win over voters in the same way Mr Cameron can. There seems to be an attitude among some Tory MPs though that ideological purity is more important than electoral victory.