Brian Monteith: David Cameron needs Conservative rebels with a cause

THE Prime Minister was in Scotland last week, although I would be surprised if very many people noticed. In fact David Cameron is quite often in Scotland, despite the fact that there is only one Conservative MP north of the Border.

Among other things he was here to support the Tory local government campaign that has set itself the modest target of pushing the Liberal Democrats into fourth place. This goal should ordinarily be achievable, albeit thanks to an expected fall in Liberal Democrat support rather than any Conservative renaissance.

Meanwhile the real battle between the SNP and Labour attracts most attention as it also provides a barometer of how popular Alex Salmond and the Nationalists remain now that Labour has elected Johann Lamont as its new leader and is taking seriously its defeat last year.

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If Labour loses control of its West Central Scotland heartlands it will be a significant blow to its morale and provoke further introspection which, if it is to be any more than “poor me” self pity, must start with a review of policies rather than the fixation about people. For the SNP, a failure to win Glasgow should not prove too disappointing as Labour has been so entrenched there for so long. Put bluntly, Labour is on a hiding to nothing, while for the SNP the questions should be: how big will their gains be?

What the Prime Minister must privately think of this as he surveys the Scottish scene can only be guessed, but it must include large amounts of frustration and irritation, for on a number of issues he is most likely more in touch with Scottish feeling than Alex Salmond.

David Cameron is now relaxed about having a constitutional referendum but believes it should be sooner rather than later, preferring next year rather than the year after that the First Minister proposes.

The Prime Minister has also signalled that he is willing to agree further delegation of powers to the Scottish Parliament, a position that has consistently attracted far more support than outright sovereignty that the First Minister campaigns for.

On domestic policy issues the Prime Minister’s growing scepticism about the economic benefits of wind turbines is in direct contrast with the First Minister’s adulation of this source of subsidies from energy consumers, the vast majority of whom are English taxpayers.

The Prime Minister’s evolving position coincides with a growing grass-roots movement in Scotland that has taken to the streets and filled village halls and was being supported by groups such as the John Muir Trust long before Donald Trump raised his objections.

Such is the SNP’s bullying and bluster surrounding any support for university tuition fees one might think that David Cameron is on the wrong side of the argument, and yet recent opinion polling has shown that, like the Prime Minister, the Scottish public favours graduates making a contribution to their university education. It is Alex Salmond who is out of step yet again.

One can even find Alex Salmond scrambling to adopt positions that come as second nature to Cameron, the SNP’s manoeuvring to support membership of Nato being the current example, following on from opposition to joining the euro currency and protecting the NHS from the public spending cuts.

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There are, of course, issues where the Scottish public will be more sympathetic to Salmond’s views, but the idea that the British Prime Minister is isolated, detached or out on a limb is risible. Cameron is far too attuned to public opinion, even Scottish opinion, to let that happen.

Indeed, such has been the habitual moving of position by the First Minister over the years to engineer less fear of independence that his strategy has become that of a chameleon, changing colour to reflect his environment.

For Conservatives in London and Edinburgh, the continuing difficulty in attracting popular Scottish support when a relatively sympathetic Prime Minister can show he is on their side, and on occasion more so than the SNP leader, can only confirm just how damaged the party brand is.

If anybody believes that simply appointing a new young thing in his place will solve this problem, then they should consider why the Prime Minister’s personal ratings are not higher. Simply put, it’s because he is a Tory.

The Conservatives may offer the best value for money, the most efficacious formula, the most personable packaging and the sleekest marketing but too few customers in Aberdeen, Dundee, Glasgow and Edinburgh appear willing to buy their soap powder – and yet they will buy similar goods that offer the same benefits so long as the brand is not Tory.

The Prime Minister can overcome this obstacle by using the aftermath of the May elections, whatever the outcome, to engineer a complete revision of how the party in Scotland relates to the rest of Britain by taking Scottish leader Ruth Davidson aside and telling her she has to become a constructive critic of his as well as a loyal supporter.

There have been issues that she could have had the occasional tiff with her beloved leader. Why did she not attack Theresa May’s nasty proposals for greater security surveillance of society when the Conservative promises of Big Society and nudge theory mean greater self-reliance and personal responsibility should free us to lead our lives the way we wish to? Why did she not seek to defend the humble Scotch Pie when Tories in Cornwall were defending the imposition of VAT on take-away Cornish pasties?

Instead these positions are left to the SNP and others to articulate when Scottish Conservatives could do them without fear of bringing the UK government down. Proclaiming “under new management” and “new formula” would be a start.

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Maybe some contemplation in the summer recess will bring Conservatives to realise that, ironically, only by becoming rebels will the Prime Minister’s prospects in a future general election improve.

Brian Monteith is policy director of ThinkScotland.org