Andrew Whitaker: Tories must beware of being consigned to history

AN ANNIVERSARY that passed by largely unnoticed yesterday was that of the 1992 General Election result, which saw John Major re-elected and securing a fourth successive electoral triumph for his party.

That election and its far reaching consequences was memorable for various reasons, such as the effect on the defeated Labour Party and a strengthening of the hand of figures such as Tony Blair and Gordon Brown who strongly advocated what they claimed was the modernisation of the party – a tendency that was to emerge later as New Labour.

Another huge consequence was the start of a process that would see the then triumphant Tories embark on a period of infighting and disastrous policy approaches that saw the party heavily defeated at the subsequent general General Election.

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John Major’s government between 1992 and 1997 had a crisis-after-crisis existence throughout this period, whether that was the ill-advised moral value campaign termed Back to Basics or the Black Wednesday decision to withdraw the UK pound from the European Exchange rate mechanism – an episode that saw the Tories lose their claim to be the party of economic competence in the eyes of many voters.

However, perhaps the most striking significance of the 20th anniversary of the 1992 election is that it is now 20 years since the Tories last won an overall majority at a UK General Election.

True, the Tories are now back in power, albeit in a coalition, but David Cameron’s failure to win an outright majority despite the unpopularity of Gordon Brown’s government makes the 1992 election, when the Tories won an overall majority of 21, an interesting talking point.

For large chunks of the 20th century the UK Conservatives were arguably one of the most formidable election-winning machines in the world – enjoying 18 years in power between 1979 and 1997 and 13 years from 1951 to 1964.

Those lengthy periods of electoral success contrast dramatically with that of the modern day Tory Party and could cast a doubt over Mr Cameron’s ability to win the next General Election, particularly given the austerity measures associated with his government.

Mr Cameron’s strategists will doubtless point to the Tory victory in 1992, which saw the party triumph despite unfavourable opinion polls and economic difficulties.

However, 20 years ago the Tories had dominated UK elections for well over a decade and enjoyed a position of strength, prior to the 1992 election, before which the party had a Commons majority of more than 100.

This time around the Tories will have it all to do if the party is to fare better than it did in 2010, both due to voter discontent over cuts and the prospect of Ed Miliband’s Labour Party increasingly getting its act together.