Analysis: Suddenly, darlings of the right are not America’s cup of tea

Having steered the Republican movement to the right, the Tea Party is now proving to be a drag on the conservative cause in America ahead of next year’s White House run-off.

A year ago, the energy of Tea Party activists was rewarded in mid-term elections that swelled their influence within Congress.

But since then, support for the movement has slumped, according to a new poll by the Pew Research Centre. And, worryingly for party bigwigs, the image of Republicanism as a whole has taken a nosedive in areas that returned House representatives sympathetic to Tea Party aims.

Those within the movement either deny the decline, or blame the media for misrepresenting its agenda. But as the Republican Party gears up to choose a challenger to take on President Barack Obama, the figures suggest that going with a Tea Party favourite may damage their chance of a White House switch.

The movement comprises a loose network of organisations calling for smaller government, greater fiscal responsibility and lower taxes. Many of its members are drawn from the Republican Party’s evangelical Christian wing, infusing the Tea Party with a socially conservative agenda.

In the wake of sweeping Republican gains in 2010’s mid-term elections, some 27 per cent of Americans said they agreed with the Tea Party, compared with 22 per cent who said they disagreed. According to the Pew Research Centre, this has now been reversed. Latest polling shows 27 per cent of the electorate are against the movement – compared with just 20 per cent in favour.

This decline in support is more marked in the 60 districts represented in Congress by politicians drawn from the Tea Party caucus. Moreover, figures show the appeal of Republicanism as a whole has been adversely affected by the movement. In Tea Party districts, the number of people expressing a favourable opinion of the party has dropped from a high of 55 per cent in March to 41 per cent in November.

Many link this decline to a belief that the Tea Party has hamstrung Republicans in Congress, tying them to an agenda that rules out compromise at a time when compromise is needed.

Bill Galston, political analyst at Washington think tank the Brookings Institution, said: “For a proportion of the US electorate, while the Tea Party represented an important reaction to a government that was seen to be going too far, it is also the case that the Tea Party itself has gone too far. It is a reaction against the reaction.”

The slump in support comes after deadlocked negotiations in Washington over the national deficit. “There is a general perception that, although both political parties have a share in Congress’s problems, the Republicans under the influence of the Tea Party are seen as even less willing to compromise,” Mr Galston said.

But those in the movement deny its influence is waning. Sal Russo, co-founder of Tea Party Express, said: “The Tea Party is just as strong now, and will be next year, as it was in 2010.”

He acknowledged that attendance numbers at Tea Party rallies was down, but compared the movement to an iceberg, suggesting that below the surface its size continued to grow.

Likewise Christina Botteri, co-founder of the National Tea Party Federation, suggested that energy in the movement was still high. “Have I seen support drop off? No I haven’t. In fact it has been just the opposite,” she said. But she accepted the movement’s image had been damaged by a perception that it is made up of what she described as “right-wing wackadoos”.

“I kinda feel like the Tea Party has got a bad rap”, she adds. “The people that disagree with the Tea Party have a history of using wedge issues to polarise people.”

She refused to accept that the Tea Party had an agenda beyond fiscal responsibility, adding that it didn’t have a position on abortion or gay marriage.

Nonetheless, of the current crop of would-be Republican presidential candidates, only those drawn from the religious right lay claim to having Tea Party support.

Mr Galston believes it would be a mistake for the party to allow such a candidate to represent it in 2012’s run-off. “If the Republicans are rash enough to nominate a candidate that is the distilled essence of the Tea Party, it will hurt their chances – but they are not going to do that,” he said.