Analysis: Success of hostage rescue bid rests on factors beyond skill

HOSTAGE rescue missions on your own doorstep are tricky enough – even for motivated and well-trained special forces.

But when you are compelled to mount an operation in unfamiliar territory, many thousands of miles from home, the odds against a successful outcome begin to become overwhelming.

Nevertheless, if there is enough time to build up a detailed intelligence picture of the buildings where the hostages are being held, and you have clear identification details for the terrorists and hostages involved, there is still a chance luck may be on your side, especially if you sneak in under the cover of darkness.

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By the sound of it, however, the Special Boat Service – or whoever carried out the final stages of this mission – just did not have the luxury of time.

In this particular case, when forced into cobbling together a skeleton plan and executing the “hasty option”, the chances of everyone remaining alive or uninjured were diminishing from the outset.

SAS and SBS commanders only consider this option when it is likely the enemy are about to kill their captives, and advise ministers accordingly in very blunt terms.

With no chance to properly rehearse what is, at the best of times, a highly complicated series of steps which rely on split-second timing, members of the force will not have felt optimistic about the probable outcome from the time they touched down on Nigerian territory.

But they had to try, and quickly, when death was obviously just round the corner for the unfortunate hostages. The Nigerian military evidently insisted on leading the raid, as we would have demanded in the UK if the situation was reversed.

This extra layer might nevertheless have over-complicated the two other factors needed for success, which are surprise and the speed of the final approach, when weapons are likely to be being held to hostages’ heads.

On top of that there were two other governments involved, hence the inevitable bickering now taking place between Rome and London when all that will now be returning to their separate countries is two lonely coffins.

Distance, logistics and legal complexities were always against the hostages and their anxious families from day one of their capture. At this early stage of post-mission analysis it would seem the blame for all the deaths lie fair and square with their captors.

• Clive Fairweather is a former deputy commander of the SAS.

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