Analysis: Not-so-clever Fox’s plan could play into SNP hands

NOT so long ago, then defence secretary Liam Fox revealed a cunning plan designed to find space in Scotland for units returning from Germany and to spike SNP girning about the lack of a military footprint in its homeland.

In so doing, he has left his successor Philip Hammond with a problem. With further cuts to an already shrunken army urgently required to balance what’s left of the books – and with withdrawal from Afghanistan accelerating – the word on the street is the Fox blueprint for Scotland is about to unravel.

Several UK infantry battalions will have to go, including one or more Scots units. The junior elements in each regimental grouping are the most vulnerable, though those such as the Highlanders in Germany are at risk, too. Additionally, the army is being forced to lose heavy armour and the like, mainly to make way for lighter, more flexible units (Treasury-speak for more savings!) This could place the Royal Scots Dragoon Guards, currently earmarked for probable return to Scotland, in the Defence Secretary’s gimlet-like sights.

However, with 40 Regiment Royal Artillery (“The Lowland Gunners”) already earmarked for disbandment because it had “heavy” guns, he and his fellow accountants will have to take special care over a growing tartan political effect. The SNP, too, have civil servants working on future defence needs and too many Scottish units earmarked for the chop by the MoD could unleash an unholy row and play into Nationalist hands in the run-up to the referendum. Behind closed doors in Whitehall, it is probable many different options are desperately being examined to try and find some balance.

There will be arguments that with a more strident stance being adopted in Scotland, it might make better sense to base more returning units down south. Others may be working on fudges that turn regular Scottish infantry into Territorial outfits – reducing costs, whilst retaining famous names. We must hope that on top of that, someone is still taking some account of what an uncertain world we continue to live in. After Afghanistan, you can bet your bottom dollar something else threatening will turn up.

• Colonel Clive Fairweather is a former senior commanding officer in Scotland.