Analysis: ‘No victor in sight as cycle of violence continues’

THE conflict and oppression in Homs is not a long-term solution for the Assad regime. Militarily, the regime is showing it can defeat the armed rebels. But this is a short-term solution.

Such tactics simply fuel popular opposition, both within Syria and among the international community. They also lead to the opposition getting better at using guerrilla tactics.

The conflict is not likely to end tomorrow, and the opposition will continue to control areas where regime forces are weak and where the population is in their favour. When they are presented with heavy armour and artillery, opposition fighters will withdraw, as they did in Homs, only to return later when the army has been moved elsewhere. This cycle will continue, the conflict moving from area to area, with no victor in sight.

It is too early to say what the outcome will be, but the internal dynamics of conflict will be heavily influenced by external factors. In the case of the regime, the support from Russia, and in the case of the opposition, the role of Turkey, the United States and the Gulf Co-operation Council, will be key factors.

Meanwhile, what happens next within security forces loyal to the regime, is another key factor. We have seen some defections in the officer corps, but as it stands, Assad’s security apparatus is holding on well – quite different from what happened in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia.

In those countries caught up in the Arab spring, key security figures decided the leadership was more part of the problem than the solution. That made it difficult for the regime to remain in place. At present the key security figures of the regime are still united. There will have to be a split for the situation to move quickly.

That said, many rank and file are not necessarily loyal to the regime, and the longer the conflict goes on and the more that is asked of them the more likely it is for splits to appear.