Analysis: Most serious legacy of war may be the diversion of effort from conflict in Afghanistan

Eight years on it is still by no means clear why George Bush jnr and the coalition ever invaded Iraq, though a desire for some sort of retribution on the Middle East for the 9/11 attacks must surely figure high on the president’s list.

Certainly no weapons of mass destruction have ever been found – so there was no “clear and certain” danger to the West ever imposed by Saddam Hussein.

If it was about al-Qaeda, it has become very apparent that Saddam never had much – or any truck with them; and if it was about oil, it is only now that Iraq is anywhere near returning to its original production levels.

Perhaps Donald Rumsfeld and the neocons were hoping to secure a major base for US forces in the region, but with this week’s withdrawal that idea has finally evaporated. Which leaves “regime change” as the major and undoubted achievement of this long and mostly sad adventure.

The Iraqis never deserved the cruel despot in the beret and cravat and millions suffered under him. To that extent the war and subsequent occupation has served these cultured and varied people well. But at what cost? The number of Iraqis killed and maimed will never bear an exact figure.

Nor will the exact number of the many tens of thousands displaced across the region ever be known. We do, however, know in very precise terms the number of coalition forces who have been returned home in body bags or who have suffered life changing physical injuries (as well as “the hidden scars of war”).

Much of the country’s infrastructure has been severely damaged, whilst its police and armed forces are nowhere near as effective yet as they were under the Ba’athists.

Economically, the country has only just resumed control of the proceeds of its enormous reserves of oil and gas – 2.4 million barrels of oil and 5.2 million cubic metres of gas per day – and it will be a long time before it becomes clear whether it will be able to make its way in the world again.

Because of the sectarian violence brought about by the invasion, the country may yet split into three – and as it was originally constituted back in the 1920s, just as oil was being discovered.

America’s standing in the region and throughout the world also has taken a fair pelting. Britain’s too, more especially amongst young and elderly Muslims.

Israel’s position is now more parlous as it is surrounded on almost all fronts by the changes wrought by the “Arab Spring” and Iran continues to meddle across the region and may yet realise its nuclear ambitions.

The invasion and occupation also took the “eyes off the ball” in Afghanistan for at least four critical years and in due course we are likely to reap a very bitter harvest as a result of that crucial time and force gap.

The sight of punchy and chippy George Bush flying onto a US aircraft carrier so soon after the invasion to declare “Job Done” will surely rank as one of the most ironic images of our time.

• Clive Fairweather is a former deputy commander of the SAS and Middle-East combatant.