Analysis: Mohamed ElBaradei changes tactics as Egyptian reform draws nearer

REFORM leader Mohamed ElBaradei’s surprise pull-out from the presidential race this weekend has laid bare the messiness of Egypt’s transition to democracy with less than six months left for the ruling generals to hand over power.

On 25 January, Egyptians will mark a year since the start of the popular uprising that forced Hosni Mubarak out of office. But there is no longer much talk about the revolution’s lofty goals of bringing democracy, freedom and social justice.

Instead, the buzz now is about new alliances that could allow the ruling military to maintain its long-standing domination over government and Islamists to flex their muscles after their big victory in parliamentary elections.

The young revolutionaries who engineered Mubarak’s fall last February have since been embroiled in an increasingly bitter dispute with the generals over the transition, the killing of scores of protesters by troops, human rights violations and the trial of thousands of civilians before military tribunals.

Egyptians went to the polls in staggered parliamentary elections that began on 28 November 2011 and ended last week. Between now and the end of June, when the generals have promised to transfer power, there are elections for parliament’s upper house, the drafting of a new constitution, a nationwide referendum on the document and then presidential elections.

Pro-democracy activists say that packed timetable is creating a climate that allows the better-organised and more well-known Islamists led by the Muslim Brotherhood to dominate at the expense of liberal and left-wing groups. Many of those groups were born of the uprising and did not have time to organise themselves.

But Mr ElBaradei’s move may have been a calculated decision.

Realising it would be impossible to win the election without the support of the Islamists who have kept him at arm’s length, he opted to pull out and publicly discredit the entire political process as messy.

Mr ElBaradei did not mention by name the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, but Saturday’s announcement contained some of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate’s harshest criticism of the generals.

He compared the military to a ship captain struggling to steer his vessel in a storm.

“Under his leadership, the ship is being rocked by waves. We offer him all kinds of help, but he declines, insisting on taking the old route as if no revolution had taken place and no regime had fallen,” he wrote in his withdrawal statement.

“My decision does not mean I am leaving the arena, but continuing to serve this nation more effectively from outside authority and free of all shackles”.

A Brotherhood-led alliance has won close to 50 per cent of parliament’s 498 seats in the elections. Another Islamist group, the ultraconservative Salafis, won about 20 per cent, while the remainder was shared by left-wing and liberal parties.

The Brotherhood has yet to say who it would support for president, but it is likely to be someone who meets the approval of the generals.