Analysis: Losing this high-stakes game could be end for Tory top two

DAVID Cameron’s emollient language may have seemed at first to be a direct rebuff to George Osborne.

Only last week, the Chancellor was telling a German newspaper that, if it wanted Britain to stay in the club, the euro elites “must change”.

However, while the emphasis may be different, both men are pointing in the same direction. Surrounded by a eurosceptic party movement, a rising force in Ukip and worried high-profile business leaders, Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are seeking to weave a course that covers as many political bases as possible.

Their destination, it seems, is a speech on Friday in which the Prime Minister will grant eurosceptics their referendum in the next parliament, but in which he himself will campaign to stay in – so long as Brussels has, agreed to a new settlement for the UK.

If it sounds complex, that’s because it is. And it means an awful lot is at stake for Mr Cameron on finding that deal with Europe. Without it, the Conservatives would surely split ahead of a referendum. As Mr Osborne has noted, Britain could opt to quit the EU. As the authors of this fiasco, both would be completely finished.

But the PM appears to be gambling that, just as Scottish politicians have used the possibility of independence to yank London’s chain, so he can do the same with Europe – give us a “devo-max” Britain, or we leave.

How ironic it would be if, just as Mr Cameron opted to see Alex Salmond’s bet on a straight in-out referendum last year, so European leaders decided now to see his, too.