Analysis: ‘The key message is public opinion is evenly divided between the options’

IT IS the option that most unionist politicians are increasingly insisting should not be put before the Scottish people. Only the SNP is keeping it alive, even though it wants something else.

Yet despite this lack of encouragement, it seems that it “devo max” is precisely the option that many a Scot actually wants.

Yesterday’s poll was far from being the first to show that some form of increased powers for the Scottish Government might well be the most widely backed option for Scotland’s constitutional future. The Scottish Social Attitudes secured almost exactly the same result when it put the three options before its respondents last year.

Meanwhile, in recent months both MORI and Angus Reid have reported that while independence remains a minority view, a majority would vote in favour of more powers for Holyrood while remaining part of the union.

Nevertheless, it is not difficult to see why unionist politicians are so reluctant to embrace the idea.

For although “devo max” was the most popular option in yesterday’s poll, in truth the key message is that public opinion in Scotland is more or less evenly divided between the three options of independence, “devo max” and the status quo. That creates a problem for the unionist camp.

If Mr Salmond’s referendum is about “devo max” as well as independence, the pro-union camp would find its support divided down the middle – thereby leaving it seriously weakened in its attempts to head off the independence campaign. And of course the poll’s figures also indicate that so long as he can persuade the advocates of independence to back “devo max” as well, Mr Salmond would appear to have every chance guaranteed of at least being able to carry off a consolation prize.

So it is clear why for unionists a referendum about independence alone looks like a much more attractive option. Thus the muttering about the possibility that Westminster might step in and organise a straightforward Yes or No referendum if Mr Salmond will not – an idea to which the newly elected Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson, lent her weight over the weekend.

This would, however, be playing with fire. For whatever might be the complexities about exactly what the public think about Scotland’s constitutional future, one thing is crystal clear. For most Scots, Holyrood, not Westminster is the place where they think that most of the decisions about the nation’s affairs should be made.

• John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University.