Allan Massie: Who will get the last word in French election?

Narrow lead for Left challenger in first round and mass of third party supporters suggests a tight battle for the Élysée Palace, says Allan Massie

IN THE first round of presidential elections, the French vote with their hearts, in the second with their heads. Or so it is sometimes said. The first round is a “beauty contest”, the second for real. The two leading candidates, the reigning president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and his socialist challenger, François Hollande, got only 56 per cent of the vote between them, with Hollande ahead by just over a point. So there are a lot of other votes to be won. Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, got just under 18 per cent, Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the far Left (backed by the remnant of France’s once great Communist party), over 11, and the centrist François Bayrou a little over 9. Where will their votes go?

Opinion polls suggest that a majority will go to Hollande, and that he will win the second round comfortably. Yet , even before one tries to guess how those who backed others on Sunday will vote next time, there are two reasons why it may be unwise to write Sarkozy off yet. First, there will be a presidential debate. Sarko actually wants three debates. Hollande is holding out for only one, which has been the norm in previous elections. This is not only because, as the front-runner, the election is now his to lose. It is also because he is likely to be bested in debate. Hollande is a rotten debater, poor at thinking on his feet; Sarko is a good one. His supporters think he will make mincemeat of the Socialist.

Second, although Sarko is widely disliked, many who dislike him have a reluctant respect for his ability. Having happily knocked his considerable ego in the first round, voters may think again, hold their nose and vote reluctantly for him on 6 May.

Meanwhile everyone is frantically trying to work out how the 40 per cent of votes that went to Le Pen, Mélenchon and Bayrou will divvy up. It’s assumed Mélenchon’s will transfer en bloc to Hollande, partly because the threat from the Left forced the socialist to move further Left than he might have wished – something that may scare off some of his more moderate supporters, unless he pulls back in the next few days. Bayrou has said he will endorse one of the candidates, but his supporters may split evenly. What of Le Pen’s?

It’s compulsory to describe the FN as a far-Right party, and in its opposition to immigration and its now-veiled racism, this may be true enough. But it has always been a much broader church than its enemies have ever admitted. In its early days, it got a lot of support from the traditional, non-Fascist Right, from people who felt betrayed by de Gaulle’s abandonment – betrayal in their language – of French Algeria. Now it’s still a mixture. In some ways it’s like Ukip, hostile to the EU. It would scrap the euro and bring back the franc, and is in favour of protection and opposed to globalisation. Its economic policy is much like that of the Bennite wing of the 1980s’ British Labour party, which is one reason why it attracts a big working-class vote. Sarko will woo FN voters, with talk of further restriction of immigration, security, and a crackdown on crime and terrorism. Hollande says he won’t. Yet some estimate that as much as a third of FN support will transfer to Hollande. If this happens, Sarko has had it. There are also some – perhaps Le Pen herself –who believe a socialist presidency would be in the long-term interest of the FN. They are probably wrong, but any who believe this may choose to vote tactically and back Hollande.

The campaign has shown that there is a deep resentment of the austerity imposed on France as a result of the financial crisis, widely blamed on “Anglo-Saxon” global finance. Hollande , if elected, will demand that the European Central Bank engages in a loosening of monetary policy – creating money (as the Bank of England has done) in an attempt to stimulate the economy. He has also proposed a top tax rate of 75 per cent for anyone with an income above €300,000 (£245,000), and higher social spending. Much of this is widely assumed to be the sort of promises candidates make to be elected, and shelve later. He will certainly have a hard job defending them convincingly when he debates with Sarko. If elected, he would have an even harder job getting Germany to agree to a lax monetary policy.

Whoever wins will face a difficult time. Unemployment, especially youth unemployment, is high, and the determination of the unions to protect job security means that opportunities are limited. Sarkozy’s original plans to make the French economy more competitive and reward work were thrown out of kilter by the global financial crash. He must regret the day when the length of the presidential term was reduced from seven years to five. He might have been in a stronger position if his mandate ran to 2014. Only one president of the Fifth Republic – Giscard d’Estaing – has lost the election for a second term. This is not as impressive a statistic as it may seem. Georges Pompidou having died in office, there have been only three other presidents before Sarko – de Gaulle, Mitterrand and Chirac. Mitterand, who beat d’Estaing in 1981, has been the only socialist president, nominally socialist some would say. Hollande, without Mitterrand’s star quality, looks set to be the second.

Yet, despite the polls, the contest still seems open. There is still almost half the electorate to play for. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s support for Hollande damage him with moderate voters? Where will the FN vote go? Can Sarko woo Bayrou, and nevertheless attract FN voters? What happens if he trounces Hollande in debate? Sarko, though president, has always been able to portray himself as an outsider – Hollande is indubitably a member of the sclerotic French establishment. Can Sarko rally the provinces against the establishment and Paris? A fascinating ten days is in store. At the end of the campaign, will Sarko have persuaded enough voters to put aside their dislike of his style, mutter “merde alors”, and reluctantly give him their vote? Or will fear of change and resentment of austerity imposed by the power of money lead them to opt for Hollande in the hope of a quiet life?