ALMOST as soon as first ballot boxes were opened yesterday morning, it was clear the fiscal treaty referendum was not going to go the way of the rerun Nice and Lisbon votes. Just a handful of constituencies voted No, even then by small margins in most cases.
Overall around three in every five ballots cast were in favour of the treaty. Turnout was low, but not spectacularly so.
But while government politicians, and their temporary allies in the opposition Fianna Fail, can be forgiven for congratulating themselves, it remains unclear how, or even if, the new treaty will aid Ireland, or the ailing eurozone.
Labour leader and deputy prime minister Eamon Gilmore told national broadcaster RTE yesterday that the treaty would provide stability, allowing the coalition to “proceed with its plan to stimulate the economy and create jobs”. Quite how a treaty that will enshrine tight fiscal strictures in the midst of a deflationary cycle will bolster the economy remains unclear.
Ireland, and Europe, remains mired in economic quicksand. Unbridled austerity and a weak currency union has created a perfect storm that EU policy makers seem unable, or unwilling, to think their way out of. The fiscal treaty makes no provision for much needed initiatives to ease the burden on indebted states and individuals, such as the issuing of Eurobonds, the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy or European-wide backing for the banking sector. Some, or all, of these measures will need to be enacted if the eurozone is to return to health.
Ireland’s Yes vote was comfortable but Irish voters are anything but contented. Many were motivated as much by fear as any belief in the sagacity of the treaty.
Thursday’s referendum also revealed a growing rift in society, with affluent areas voting Yes and turning out in bigger numbers than in poorer areas. This should be a huge worry for Mr Gilmore and his Labour Party, whose support has halved to just 10 per cent since last year’s general election.
Sinn Fein, the force behind the No campaign, could emerge as the big winners. Polls put support for the republicans at 24 per cent, behind only Fine Gael. If the outlook for Ireland does not improve, the political map could be redrawn yet again.