Scottish independence: Scots ‘too reliant on oil’, Tories warn

The Tories have warned that an independent Scotland would be “over-reliant” on oil and gas.

A study by think-tank Centre for Public Policy for Regions (CPPR) found that, excluding the extraction of North Sea oil and gas, in 2011 the Scottish economy grew at 0.5 per cent, half the rate seen for the UK (1 per cent).

If North Sea economic activity were apportioned on a geographic basis then Scotland’s GDP including oil and gas extraction is likely to have fallen by more than 3 per cent in 2011, the report said.

The figure for the fall of 3 per cent was reached by applying the 20 per cent decline in the UK oil and gas extraction sector in 2011 to Scotland. North Sea output fell “considerably” in 2011, with oil and gas production down 18 per cent and 22 per cent respectively, according to the study.

Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Gavin Brown MSP said: “A separate Scotland would be over-reliant on oil and gas. This can prove risky, particularly with the wild fluctuations in prices we have seen in recent years.

“At some point in the future it will run out and of course we will no longer be able to rely on it at that stage. And the SNP have failed to take into the account the billions needed to decommission the North Sea oilfields.”

Finance secretary John Swinney MSP said: “The fact is that the Scottish economy outperformed the UK as a whole in terms of GDP growth over the last two quarters of 2011 – and we have a higher employment rate and lower unemployment in Scotland compared to the position south of the Border.

“More than half of the value of North Sea oil and gas reserves have yet to be extracted. By definition ‘exceptional’ interruptions in output in 2011 do not reflect the future.”