Defence cuts threat to Scots bases

SCOTLAND is in line for its most severe defence cuts since the end of the Cold War as the coalition government starts to haul back Britain's record budget deficit.

• Two Nimrod surveillance aircraft touch down at RAF Kinloss. Pic PA

According to sources within the MoD, major RAF and army bases north of the Border face closure as part of huge cutbacks in the armed services.

Although no final decisions have been made on the Strategic Defence Review (SDR), the Kinloss and Lossiemouth bases on the Moray Firth are the most vulnerable of the three main RAF bases in Scotland because their continued existence relies on the deployment of new reconnaissance and strike fighter squadrons.

The Royal Marines' Arbroath base of 45 Commando is also at risk, as is a scaling down of the Black Watch headquarters at Fort George, near Inverness.

At the same time, total manpower is expected to be reduced in line with a UK target of slashing the armed services by 20 per cent. In Scotland that is likely to bring a 2,400 drop in personnel to below a total complement of 10,000.

The navy is also expected to take a share of the cuts. Although the Faslane-based Trident nuclear fleet is expected to survive, the number of Astute class submarines could be reduced.

One other casualty could be the Queen Victoria School in Dunblane, which educates the children of army personnel serving in Scotland.

The scale of the potential cutbacks in Scotland has emerged as the House of Commons prepares for the first debate on the government's strategic defence review. Officials have briefed MPs on some of the likely consequences in advance of tough decisions later this year.

The SNP says that early indications from within the ministry are that the armed services are being concentrated in bases in England.

Angus Robertson, the SNP's Westminster leader and defence spokesman, said: "All the indications are that the SDR could have catastrophic consequences for the defence footprint in Scotland.

"Having seen the significant reduction in manpower, military units and facilities in recent years this trend could continue. We need to realise how big the threat is to defence in Scotland and the MoD needs to appreciate how damaging that will be."

Defence analyst Tim Ripley said the review was likely to target the parts of the armed services where savings could be made most quickly. "The government is likely to go for low hanging fruit," he said. "This means it will look at savings which will have an impact on spending now.

"A lot of people talk about saving 100 billion by cancelling Trident, but even if this happened it would not really make any difference in spending for a decade.

"That is why facilities in Scotland are vulnerable. There are quick savings to be made by closing Fort George and the Royal Marines base in Arbroath as well as RAF Kinloss and Lossiemouth, which are reliant on future aircraft programmes."

MoD figures recently revealed a series of cuts in the past decade which show that Scotland has lost out more than any other part of the UK, exploding the myth that Scotland does better than elsewhere in the UK for defence spending.

According to the figures, the underspend in Scotland, based on its population, increased from 749 million in 2002/03 to 1.3bn in 2007/08. The MoD is now refusing to publish regional breakdowns on defence spending.

In recent years 1,841 RAF jobs have gone and three facilities shut down, 602 navy jobs have disappeared, with Rosyth the biggest casualty, and 12 jobs went when the army depot at Forthside was shut.

The SNP has also noted that England gets 94 per cent of its share of spending while Scotland gets 61 per cent. No home nation gets 100 per cent because of overseas spending.

Robertson said: "These figures reveal a mammoth defence underspend in Scotland, just as the MoD embarks on a strategic review that is almost certain to bring even more pain.

"The scale of the underspend is striking because, in contrast to conventional wisdom about a significant and well-funded UK defence presence in Scotland, the facts are entirely different.

"Scottish taxpayers are disproportionately contributing huge sums towards the Ministry of Defence, at the same time as the conventional defence footprint in Scotland is disappearing at an unprecedented rate."

An MoD spokesperson said: "The future configuration of our armed forces will be based on the findings of the Strategic Defence and Security Review which is under way.

"Final decisions will depend on the outcome of the SDSR and discussions with the service chiefs. We won't comment on any speculation on the outcome of the review."