Alastair Campbell: Spin and soundbites only take you so far

THE success of political leadership lies on being able to capture the mood of your country, and persuade people that the values and vision you hold - and the policies you put forward - match both mood and people's expectations.

By that yardstick, Alex Salmond's campaign of four years ago, though it pains me to say it, has to be judged a success. It was a slick campaign helped by a war chest three times the size of Labour's, and Salmond proved himself a slick communicator, always on message, always positioning himself on the populist side of as many causes as he could back.

As so many leaders do, however, he has found government harder than opposition. He can still do soundbite politics and, like David Cameron in Westminster, does not lack front or self-confidence.

But both, in different ways and on different timescales, are finding that the spin and the soundbites only take you so far. For enduring political success, such as the three general elections won by Labour, you need substance, a real understanding of people and the times we live in, and, above all, you need the detailed, thought-through policies that deliver change.

Like Tony Blair, Salmond had a long honeymoon. The media lapped up clarity of message, which he delivered well and which acted as a clever soundtrack to the music of an upbeat, devolved Scotland. But his big mistake was thinking he could get by being a good communicator with a man-of-the-people touch. Politicians who don't have the policies and are unable to improve people's lives get found out. Governments are judged on what they do. Words, however well polished, are never a substitute for real change.

Even as I write those words, I can see the Salmond guffaw - the one he deployed for Iain Gray's attack last week that his limited and confused Budget put party before country - at the idea that I of all people should be talking about actions speaking louder than words.

I have just finished editing my next volume of diaries (out in January, now you ask), which cover the first two years of the Blair government. The five pledges that we made the centrepiece of our campaign - all met. Then Bank of England independence, a minimum wage, the New Deal, a Scottish Parliament, the beginnings of the biggest investment in schools and hospitals since the creation of the NHS, peace in Northern Ireland, welfare reform, gay rights, Kosovo, Sierra Leone… I could fill the whole of this page with a list of major changes made in a short period.

What can Salmond and the SNP say by way of comparison on record over the years they've had? They certainly raised expectations in 2007, but unlike New Labour a decade before, have not fulfilled them. The litany of broken SNP promises, born out of a manifesto that over-pledged, grows weekly. Coupled with growing disquiet about rising unemployment in Scotland, the election starting in 20 weeks' time is now wide open.

I was in Scotland yesterday for the Lennoxlove Book Festival, where Iain Gray happened to be visiting, so I took the chance to catch up. My strong sense from following Scottish politics from London is that he has led a quiet revolution in the way Labour operates. He has instilled discipline of message, making Labour's central arguments clear and precise. With his customary bluster, Alex Salmond had predicted winning 20 seats in May. He was stopped in his tracks by a revitalised Labour Party winning back votes, seats and trust. Just like the Tories, the SNP have become greedy on big donations while Labour has learnt to be smarter at using resources and clearer about focusing its message.

I enjoy watching political opponents make mistakes. One golden rule in politics is never to under-estimate your opponents, yet I strongly sense the Nationalists underestimate Iain Gray. He may not have Salmond's celebrity touch, but he has a good grasp of policy detail, he is improving Labour's organisation, and can get momentum from a 3-0 score in head-to-head elections against the SNP leader.

May's elections will be won by the party that speaks to people most convincingly about the issues that matter most directly to them. They may be in government, able to decide on every issue, but the SNP's most important policy - independence - is among its most unpopular. The global economic crisis was so big, so all-consuming, that the argument about the additional damage that would have been done to an independent Scotland did not really take off. It should do.

Labour's approach of putting the economy and jobs centre stage has broader appeal. Labour must take its jobs and living standards message and policies to young people who want to see more apprenticeships, low-paid workers worried about the cost of living, mums who want to see illiteracy tackled in schools, older people anxious about the health service - whatever Cameron and Salmond say about protecting the frontline.

As well as fighting on the issues of the past, the SNP are still using the campaign techniques of the past. Back then, when Salmond's currency was hope, the glossy brochures, the bought ad space and expensive TV broadcasts with paid actors all seemed to add to the sense of excitement. This time, they will just be irritants. If the general election was the word of mouth campaign, the next election should be the doorstep election.

Labour's strapline - "because Scotland deserves better" - recalls the determination of Labour's manifesto title when we last beat the Tories. Refighting that election won't work now. But if Iain Gray captures a key lesson of Labour's success then - the discipline of a focused message built from thought-through policy positions - and couples it with the targeted election techniques that served his party so well this year, Scotland can have a new first minister next year.

n Alastair Campbell was Tony Blair's director of communications and strategy. He was speaking yesterday at the Lennoxlove Book Festival on volume one of his diaries, Prelude to Power, and the second volume, Power and the People, published on 20 January.