A new crossing – or Scotland faces stark economic future

Story in full JAMES Barnes cannot believe what he is witnessing. As chief executive of Dobbies, Scotland's largest garden-centre company, he faces taking a multi-million pound hit if the Forth Road Bridge is closed to lorries in seven years' time.

Yet, as far as he can tell, nothing meaningful is happening. "We were asked to fill in a form by the Executive asking whether the bridge was important to our business. Our response was an unequivocal 'yes'," he said.

"Scotland isn't China. We all know how long it takes to build things in this country. If this procrastination continues, or if nothing happens at all and we are effectively left without a crossing of the Forth, then the knock-on economic consequences are very severe."

Three of his stores, at Dalgety Bay, Kinross and Perth, depend on goods and customers crossing the existing Forth Road Bridge.

Backing The Scotsman's campaign for an urgent decision to build a new Forth crossing, Mr Barnes said: "About a third of the customers in our Fife and Perth outlets have come over the bridge, but the way that disruption would hurt us most would be in the damage it would do to the economy.

"Not only will it be much harder for companies to get people to work for us if they can't cross the bridge but, as a consumer business, we will feel the blow to confidence very quickly."

Dobbies is just one of scores of companies which fear for the future if an urgent decision is not taken to commission and begin building a new crossing.

Manufacturing companies bring in their raw materials and send out their finished products across the existing bridge; tourism companies ferry thousands of visitors over it; financial companies in Edinburgh depend on the hordes of workers who use it every day to get to work.

"It's time we were clear about the priorities here," said Ron Hewitt, the chief executive of the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce. "We either have a functional Forth crossing for vehicles into the foreseeable future or we don't. If we don't, Scotland's economy comes to a very large barrier."

The risk to Scotland's economy is stark. An estimate by the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, which has been endorsed by Professor Robert Wright of Strathclyde University Business School, puts the potential cost of an HGV ban to the Scottish economy at around 900 million a year.

They estimate that freight transporters would have to add up to 45 minutes and 20 miles to their journeys - costing an extra 140 million a year.

It is also projected that the bill to tourism could be as much as 225 million, while inward investment could be hit by as much as 100 million.

The bill would be even higher if, as consultants believe, cars were to be banned from the existing bridge by 2019. Such a closure would paralyse the central Scotland road network, causing an estimated total extra cost of 2 billion.

Should a new crossing be built in time to relieve the existing bridge, as The Scotsman is calling for, the economy would grow by 500 million a year.

Liz Cameron, the director of the Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said: "Estimates can only be informed guesses at this stage, but the onus is on the Scottish Executive, Transport Scotland and Scottish Enterprise to produce more authoritative numbers.

"Ministers do privately accept the gravity of the situation, but we can't sweep this under the carpet; we need to hear about contingency plans."

Any business that relies on deliveries of goods in or out by road will be affected by the extra costs of hauliers' fuel and driving time as they find longer, alternative routes to market. These costs will be passed on to consumers.

Even non-road users will feel the effect as delivery-dependent petrol stations, supermarkets, hotels and pubs attempt to reclaim their losses.

Road transport-reliant businesses outside Fife and the Lothians that depend heavily on this route include the whisky industry, the fishing industry, the agricultural and dairy industries and the tourism industry.

Alan Rankin, the director of the public-private sector Scottish Tourism Forum, said: "A new crossing is critical for the development of our tourism industry. Restricted access to the bridge would decimate the tourism economy in the east of Scotland and endanger countless jobs.

"One of our members, a tour operator, makes over 2,000 crossings over the Forth each year, routing groups to the east of Scotland, the Highlands and the Trossachs; impeded access would be catastrophic to business like his."

Meanwhile, Mr Barnes is investing 7 million in another store in Halbeath, overlooking the bridge from the north side of the Forth. Many of its future customers live across the Forth.

"We are looking at a rare case of a developed nation taking a major step backwards. The worst thing will be that it will all have been completely avoidable," he said.

WHY WE SUPPORT THE CAMPAIGN

ANDY WILLOX, policy convener, Federation of Small Business Scotland

We fully endorse The Scotsman's campaign to secure an additional crossing over the Forth. The majority of Scotland's 260,000 small businesses rely on their own vehicles to transport goods and services, and public transport isn't an option.

Any restrictions on local businesses would have a devastating impact on the economy.

We don't have time to wait until May 2007 for a report to tell us what we already know.

JOHN PARK, assistant secretary, STUC

The STUC called for planning and preparation work to start on a new Forth crossing at our congress in 2004. We believe it would be helpful to have a decision on a new crossing sooner rather than later.

Traffic levels on the current bridge continue to grow well beyond the recommended capacity. This places a severe brake on economic links and puts beyond dispute the economic and environmental case for ensuring that a new crossing combines both road and tram or rail freight.

NEIL DONALDSON, chairman, James Donaldson & Sons

I am delighted to back The Scotsman's campaign for a quick decision on another Forth crossing. My company is a timber importing and distribution business. On a typical day we send out 30 lorries and we reckon between 15 and 20 per day cross the bridge. The Executive has failed to take cognisance of the importance of this issue and if the bridge does become unsafe, then it must hold its head in shame. I hope our ministers are listening.

GEOFF RUNCIE, chief executive, Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce

The Forth road crossing is strategically important to the Aberdeen economy. We support The Scotsman's campaign based on our knowledge of the scale and complexity from a planning point of view, though it must be set in consideration of other transport projects. Scotland does not have an encouraging history of pushing these projects through. I see no evidence this will be any different, but I'd like to be proved wrong.

Crash brings chaos

AN OVERTURNED lorry on the Forth Road Bridge brought chaos to rush-hour commuters yesterday.

The southbound vehicle clipped a car at 6:15am, causing hour-long queues on the M90 that stretched past Halbeath, near Dunfermline, five miles north of the crossing, until 10am.

Chief Inspector Joe Swanston, of Fife Constabulary, said: "Any collision requiring closure of a carriageway is going to cause significant disruption."