800 more elderly Scots could die in Big Freeze

• Picture: TSPL

As the country battles with the most extreme conditions for almost 50 years, the sub-zero temperatures are expected to increase the normal winter death toll significantly.

Between December and March last year, there were 3,510 "excess deaths" in Scotland, but this winter that figure is set to jump significantly, mostly among the over-75s.

It is estimated that, over the four-month winter period, an extra seven pensioners every day will die in Scotland as a result of the freak weather, which last night was forecast to hit –23C in some areas.

Sub-zero temperatures trigger more heart attacks and strokes among frail pensioners. Many have been stranded at home because of treacherous conditions on ungritted pavements, with those venturing out at added danger of falls on snow and ice. Hip fractures can cut the life expectancy of over-75s to less than a year.

Experts said few of the deaths would make the headlines and described the issue as a "silent epidemic".

The news came as Britain continued to struggle under the Arctic onslaught, with gas demand again hitting record levels, while salt for road clearance remained in perilously short supply.

Two police officers were injured when their car was hit after being called to another crash on the A90 near Forfar, while two men died after falling through the ice on a frozen lake in Leicestershire.

Dr Stirling Howieson, of Strathclyde University, said there were an 80 extra deaths in Scotland for every degree the temperature dropped below the winter average. He said temperatures have been at least 7C lower than normal in January.

He said cold caused the body to shut down blood vessels to the skin to prevent heat loss, displacing and thickening blood which overloaded central organs and increased the risk of heart attacks.

Dr Howieson, director of the university's centre for environmental design and research, said: "Three weeks of exceptionally low temperatures will definitively have an impact. Most people will not be dying of hypothermia, but from heart attacks, strokes and respiratory disease."

He said fuel price rises last year would make it even more difficult for older people to afford to keep warm and called for higher winter fuel payments by introducing means-testing.

However, Dr Howieson said the most cost-effective solution was to improve home insulation, whose levels were decades behind other countries.

Age Concern and Help the Aged in Scotland expressed great concern about the prediction.

Spokesman Douglas McLellan said: "The figures are very alarming. Cold weather should not result in this number of deaths.

"We would urge health authorities to act quickly to help any older person with symptoms, and call on local authorities to provide as much support to vulnerable people as possible."

Mr McLellan said the elderly were at increased risk because fewer were now eligible for home care, and some relatives would struggle to reach them to help in the wintry conditions.

He said only one in ten pensioners received help at home from councils, far fewer than needed it. Half of single pensioners – most women – lived in fuel poverty.

Mr McLellan urged shopkeepers to check on any regular elderly customers they had not seen.

Val Crookston, Scotland executive officer for Contact the Elderly, a charity for over-75s living alone with no support, said: "This is of huge concern. The longer the cold weather goes on, the more difficult it will be for older people, for whom this is a silent epidemic."

Scotland Secretary Jim Murphy yesterday urged football and rugby fans whose games were postponed by the weather today to help old people instead.

He said: "Use that 90 minutes to get some groceries for an elderly neighbour, help clear their path, or even just pop in and check they are OK."

Harry Burns, Scotland's chief medical officer, said: "By making sure that vulnerable people are staying warm and eating properly, we hope to minimise fatalities."

Prime Minister Gordon Brown urged elderly people to claim any cold weather payments to which they were entitled.

The Scottish Government said it offered payments and an insulation improvement scheme, so no-one should feel they could not keep their home warm.

Altnaharra in Sutherland was the coldest place in Britain on Thursday night – and the coldest for years – at –22.3C.

It was –10.7C in Edinburgh and –8.6C in Glasgow.

The Met Office said temperatures last night would creep closer to the record low of –27.2C set in Braemar in 1895 and equalled by Altnaharra 15 years ago.

Spokesman Ross Melville said: "We are heading towards the record thanks to the "Albedo" (whiteness] effect of the sun's rays being reflected back into space by the snow, allowing no heat to be absorbed by the ground."

Saturday night would be slightly milder, he said, but it would be the end of next week before daytime temperatures rose consistently above freezing.

Scotland also had its third coldest December since records began in 1914.

Councils continued to eke out salt supplies in an effort to conserve stocks. In Moray, cleared snow is having to be transported to areas such as car parks, because of the lack of space on roadsides.

The driver who died after his stranded car was hit by a lorry on the A1 near Cockburnspath on Wednesday was named as hospital consultant Mahmoud Abdel-Fattah, 42, from Dunfermline.

The AA told The Scotsman that road deaths are expected to have been more than halved by the snow and ice, because traffic had been cut by about 60 per cent and drivers were taking more care. He said the normal seven deaths a day was down to about three, although non-injury collisions were up by a third.

Ministers temporarily relaxed drivers' hours restrictions for hauliers bringing de-icing supplies to airports.

On the railways, ScotRail and Network Rail have introduced an emergency timetable on the main Edinburgh-Glasgow line and other busy routes around Glasgow in an effort to run as reliable service as possible in the face of trains breaking down and points freezing. Trains on the Edinburgh-Glasgow line may be halved in frequency to half-hourly.

The Aviemore-Inverness line will not reopen until next week following a freight train crash, while the Inverurie-Elgin line also remained shut.