Covid Scotland: Worst case modelling predicts over 100,000 new cases a week by mid July

Scotland could see more than 100,000 new Covid cases a week by mid July, Scottish Government modelling has warned.

Figures published in the Scottish Government’s most recent Modelling the Epidemic report are considerably more pessimistic than the previous week, based on data up to early June.

A recent surge in cases has seen worst case predictions rise to around 112,000 new cases per week by mid July, although estimates could reach as high as 130,000.

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There is “considerable uncertainty” as to the effect of recent case numbers on hospitalisations and intensive care admissions in the next few weeks, the report states.

Picture: PA Media
Picture: PA Media

Worst case predictions could see demand for Covid hospital beds rising fivefold in the first two weeks of July, to above 1,000.

Demand for ICU beds could also reach above 100.

Latest Scottish Government figures show 202 people in hospital with Covid-19 while 20 people were in intensive care.

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The highest ever daily total of new cases were reported on Monday, at 3,285. Test positivity was 12.6 per cent.

The Modelling the Epidemic report shows the R rate is between 1.1 and 1.3.

The biggest increase in cases has been in people under 40, who have increased their overall contacts.

Visits to other people’s homes have increased, as well as people attending outdoor events.

Recent case numbers have also shown a higher number of infections in men under 40 than in women.

Nicola Sturgeon is set to give a Covid briefing on Tuesday to update on the recent surge in cases.

In an address on Monday evening, the First Minister urged Scots to be cautious until the vaccination programme catches up.

"If we are to avoid the virus running ahead of the vaccine, it’s really important that all of us take care and be cautious,” she said.

“I’m asking everybody across Scotland at this crucial time as we look ahead, hopefully to the finishing line, to do all of the things that help slow the virus down.

“Let’s all keep working together to slow the virus down while we allow the vaccination programme to get ahead. That will get us safely to the end point if we all pull together for this next period.”

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